JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/25/25

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/25/25

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Ben Clemens

2:27

So, I do buy that second argument as a reason to wonder about htem, and maybe we could manually handle no-pitch IBB"s (as in IBB'ed right away) vs. ones where the at-bat started normally

2:28

I think the main reason is actually from the pitcher hitting era

like, your 8 hitter getting walked intentionally says very littel about his skill, if you give him credit for working a walk you're doing something wrong

2:29

Because IBB's are so situational (is first base open?) and also because they are definitely, on average, less valuable to the batting team than a regular walk, I agree with the idea to exclude them

I'd exclude them from FIP as well, tbh

difficult question though

JK

2:30

For the high K high BB or low K low BB guys, do you have a minimum ratio that either, you have found through analytics, or is just a personal preference, that is acceptable to change their one rate to improve the other? For example, a 1/1.5 ratio where their BB rate improves but their K gets worse (in the case of the low both) or where their K improves but their BB gets worse (in the case of the high both). Obviously we want both to improve, and 1:1 would be amazing

Ben Clemens

2:30

I like to use K-BB here, actually, because a 1:1 ratio is about what I want

Phil

2:30

FanGraphs Auction Calendar had Betts at 7ish for YTD (FG Points League) and I utilized it to trade that amount of value for playoff run. That being said any thoughts of him finishing closer to norm this year?

Ben Clemens

2:30

yeah I tried to bid on him in Ottoneu b/c he got cut in our league from a super high salary, and missed

I'm interested in betting on a return to form, basically

tortycraig

2:32

curious to get your perspective - rank in order of trade value this offseason: Noot, Gorman, Walker

Ben Clemens

2:32

For me it's that order, and like, each step has a huge gap

look, I really wanted to be in on Jordan Walker

but this is not working

he's batted 1000 times in the majors at this point

2:33

and he's hitting .248/.308/.390

2:34

Gorman is kinda similar but has both more interesting positional versatility and a bit more demonstrated MLB power

2:35

Nootbaar is, you know, a productive big leaguer who gets hurt too much. a cut above the other two imo

Guest

2:35

I hate cap/floor because of dead contract moving in the NBA - it’s such a lame oart

Ben Clemens

2:35

ooh, now that is true

I do dislike that particular part

I dunno, I think that it would be good overall because the low-payroll teams in baseball are such an eyesore

and I'm happy to rein in the high spenders in exchange if we're getting a true raising of the bar

the person who asks the lunch question

2:36

what's for lunch?

Ben Clemens

2:36

we had a greek meal kit kinda deal last night with some excess tzatziki, so chicken/arugula/tzatziki bowls

drplantwrench

2:37

im sad about trout regression from superstar to just really really good. whats the likelihood he goes back to a 170 wRC+ guy? has that happened before?

Ben Clemens

2:37

I don't have any examples off the top of my head, and I agree, it's kind of sad to watch

doesn't detract from his incredible career, but I think at some poitn guys who are good-or-hurt always end up declining a little b/c of all the injuries, and that seems to have happened here

Mike

2:38

But will low spenders actually add talent, or just pay mediocre / young players more (which is good!, but not improving the product)?

Ben Clemens

2:39

well, the talent is probably constant-ish across the majors, or at least that's a good assumption to make for a study

so if the distribution of who's spending the money changes (i.e. the percdentage of the salary pie spent by the Pirates/A's/Rays normalizes relative to the chunk spent by the Mets/Yankees/Dodgers) you'd expect the talent distribution to match that

will it work in practice? no idea

D

2:40

I've been trying to give the Red Sox the benefit of the doubt when they've played Rafaela at 2B, assuming that they believe Duran's preference for CF and the additional decent bat is enough to compensate. But last night they played Eaton in CF and Rafaela at 2B. I give up.

Ben Clemens

2:40

I really don't have a good asnwer for you here

It's maddening to me too

like I really thought that last year's shortstop saga meant the end of Rafaela in the infield, but they've leaned into it HARD in the last month

Backstops

2:41

How would you rank these young catchers in future value? H. Goodman, A. Kirk, L. O'Hoppe

Ben Clemens

2:41

Kirk (big big gap) (another big big gap) (another big gap) Goodman (gap) O'Hoppe

2:42

I thought O'Hoppe might hit enough to offset the rough defense but uh, nope

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