JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/25/25

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/25/25

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Ben Clemens

2:43

Goodman is interesting, but basically I'm skeptical of the defense and I don't have nearly enough track record to think he'll continue to hit well in the majors

I'd be very happy to have him on my team. But Kirk has been better this year, has a longer offensive and defensive track record, is basically the same age, and is on a hell of a good contract

like, I think the gap is pretty large

Guest

2:44

US Open has the highest ratio of "intriguing sports event" to "but I would never attend" for me.

Ben Clemens

2:44

iiiinteresting

you should go!

I went every year when I lived in NYC and it's one of my favorite in-person events

the grounds pass experience where you can walk around and watch one of the best 100 tennis players in the world from like 25 feet away is so cool

Ozzie

2:45

I get your argument for excluding IBBs, but it doesn't apply to Barry Bonds. By excluding IBBs, you are really just penalizing him for being the most feared hitter in baseball.

Ben Clemens

2:45

are we, though? Like, in 2004, he had 120 IBB's

so we credited him with 120 PA of a 233 wRC+

that's not a huge punishment

2:46

if we just stripped it from WAR completely, sure

but we're saying 'you deprived him of a chance to hit like he normally would, so instead we just credit him with his normal batting line'

J

2:46

For anyone who's never seen live tennis, I highly recommend just getting the cheapest possible ticket to the US Open and seeing whoever happens to be there. It's just so so much more impressive in person (and I got to see Naomi Osaka in the first round this way before she was really known widely).

Ben Clemens

2:46

doesn't even have to be the US Open tbh

2:47

if you live near Cincy, Miami, Indian Wells, Toronto, Montreal, honestly even one of the lower level tournies, just go check it out

world class athletes up close are just incredibly impressive

DeeBo

2:47

Does George Springer’s resurgence this year change how you think about the aging curve? I usually think of the curve as immutable — once you start declining, there’s no turning back the clock. But so far at age 35 springer has put together a .900 OPS over 450 PAs after not even sniffing within 150 points of that the previous two years. How is he doing it?!

Ben Clemens

2:47

I think that it makes me think about it in terms of probability rather than certainty, but yeah, it's pretty freaking impressive

RANDAL GRICHUK

2:48

Rainiel Rodriguez: future star?

Ben Clemens

2:48

already in our top 100!

2:49

honestly I'm a scout the statline guy for DSL/complex stuff and he was giving me Malcom Nunez vibes, which I mean in a complimentary way

wow, Malcom Nunez is in Triple-A for the Pirates now

that DSL summer for him was a thing to behold

tortycraig

2:49

I've asked a more verbose version of this before, and the answer might be 'it's all baked in and prospect rankings evolve quickly' but are pitching prospect rankings a fools errand now? Something something injuries/player development/evolutions in pitcher & innings usage at MLB etc.

Ben Clemens

2:50

I don't want to say that categorically, but I'd say this: I'm far less confident in pitching rankings than hitting rankings because pitchers tend to be inherently more volatile

I looked into this question for Prospect Week this year:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-do-prospect-grades-translate-to-future...

trophy

1

2:51

and found that as hitter grades increase, their eventual outcomes increase more or less linearly. pitchers, on the other hand, show huge dispersion in future outcomes across the board

it's not quite TINSTAAPP, it's more like 'volatility bands are much wider for pitchers, so 45's turn into 55's and vice versa more frequently'

Mr. Burrito

2:51

Re. Trout comeback.... Here's how much WAR these three players generated between ages 34 and 38: Tris Speaker, 32.6; Hank Aaron 30.9; Ted Williams, 32.2.... In other words, it's possible.

Ben Clemens

2:52

oh totally. but from 30-33, Trout 11.4, Aaron 28.5, Speaker 25.6, Williams 21.6

it's more about the shape to me

Guest

2:53

re: US open attendance, isn't it SUPER packed and rowdy now though, to where some of the intimacy is gone?

Ben Clemens

2:53

I'll let you know after I go!

I have Saturday grounds passes (well, last row of Ashe, whatever)

i haven't been since like 2016

Colton

2:54

Was last year a blip for Lawrence Butler? Weird year so far from him but the talent is still very good it seems. Does he get back to around the 130 wRC+ he finished with last year or settle in closer to league average moving forward in your opinion?

Ben Clemens

2:54

so maybe this is a Bayesian thing?

but my prior on Butler was that last year was better than a mean outcome

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