JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/25/25

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Ben Clemens

3:15

Like he's batting at almost his exact career line, elite baserunning like always

but do you really think he's multiple WINS better defensively this year? i definitely do not

Greg

3:15

I wonder if some of the "he just kills team X" announcer patter stems from before modern pitching development; where there was a wider spread in pitching philosophy team by team, a guy who lifted sinkers could kill the mid-aughts Twins or 2013-2016 Pirates, for example.

Ben Clemens

3:15

I mean, I think it's because the stats are available

QTRF

3:17

Have you given your thoughts on the DBacks shopping Marte (a few weeks after the trade value list)?

Ben Clemens

3:17

Eh, I read those rumors and I think they're BS basically

here's what Nick Piecoro, who I t hink is very plugged in, said:

And some have even wondered how the Diamondbacks would look without him, pondering the idea of an offseason trade. That, to be clear, appears extremely unlikely

Guest

3:18

as a padres fan, would it be better to face the Mets as the third place division winner or face the cubs as the 4 seed WC host? (assuming they actually get to host a WC round)

Ben Clemens

3:18

I'd rather face the Cubs but I do not feel strongly

I don't think there are any easy outs in the NL field this year

Jake

3:19

Tbh I kind of like the “random announcer anecdotes”. I already know most of a hitter’s main stats, especially by the 3rd trip thru the order. “BA with RISP” or “OPS vs X Pitcher” isn’t super predictive, but it’s definitely relevant to the situation!

Ben Clemens

3:19

I greatly dislike the 'he's hitting lefties well this year' stuff

it feels anti-useful

fanoftheman

3:19

Every time I think of the 2013-2016 Pirates I feel bad for them. Second most wins in MLB 13-15, and all they got out of it was one divisional series and two wild card losses (Bumgarner and Arrietta) - because they had the misfortune of being in the same division as the Cardinals (most wins in MLB 13-15). Tough luck for the team and the fans

Ben Clemens

3:20

the 2015 season where the Cards won 100, the Cubs won 98(?) and the Pirates won 97(?) was really ridic

Bloomin Onion

3:20

do you think StL payroll will be under 100million next year?

Ben Clemens

3:21

nah, I don't think so looking through Roster Resource. They're at $80 million just with Arenado/Gray/Contreras

3:22

figure they have 8 arb guys next year earning an average of $4 million (this year they had 5 arb guys earning around $3 million, but things should go up), that's another $32 million, plus another 15*.75 or 12 million in min salaries

so 124 million, even if they trade Arenado and sign almost no one they'll be right near $100 million

Mike

3:22

Isn't every thing 99% of announcers say not useful? I don't know, I listen to music most of the time while they inanely talk....

Ben Clemens

3:22

oh man, I don't think that at all, I actually love to listen to announcers

3:23

they greatly shape my enjoyment of the game, and I think a lot of their qualitative observations are incredible

I learn a lot about baseball by listening to announcers who have seen way more games than I ever have

you just have to know when some of their opinions are shaped by observational biases

Guest

3:23

team more likely to enter tank mode next 2 seasons: Dbacks, Giants, Rangers, Braves

Ben Clemens

3:24

Rangers I think

but not super strongly

I guess I'd say that the Giants are least likely

and that's even if they should; you don't bring in Posey to POBO, trade for Devers, and then rebuild

similarly the Braves have a great model going where they always compete and make a ton of money at the ballpark, why break that up?

Ozzie

3:24

Going off the Butler, Vientos conversation from earlier, do you think Kyle Stowers will have a similar down year next season? Or is his improvements sustainable?

Ben Clemens

3:26

I'm more optimistic about Stowers because he has much better underlying minor league numbers

but like.... I'm still expecting regression. 27-year-olds who break out are often worse at 28

Insert Witty Name Here

3:27

If you don’t like listening to announcers, Google John Oliver’s segment on John Kruk.

Ben Clemens

3:27

agree

TigersFan1

3:27