JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/25/25

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/25/25

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Ben Clemens

3:03

I think the 40% chance of the bye is doing some work, but also we're surely a little low on the Brewers

3:04

Like we have the Dodgers as around 60% to win a given round of the playoffs

that's, uh, high

TKDC

3:04

The IBB penalty actually only really seems like it punishes bad hitters that are IBB for some reason. Congrats, here’s another PA credited to you at below replacement level!

Ben Clemens

3:04

yes, and absolutely hilarious

3:05

to be fair, you know what that bad hitter was doing with his other PA's, though? hitting below replacement level

so it's not THAT punishing

Matt

3:05

Everyone kills the Mets!

Ben Clemens

3:05

oh man, I wasn't expecting this but what a delightful comment

Guest

3:05

lunch tip I just figured out: at the beginning of the week, make chicken stock out of a whole chicken. Freeze the stock and use instead of buying store bought, and then you have chicken to add to sandwiches, soups, ramen, salads, etc all week!

Ben Clemens

3:06

I've heard this! I don't do it b/c I don't eat a lot of chicken but if you do, go for it

Crashed Scion

3:06

Speaking of probability versus certainty...where does Adley Rutschmann as Matt Wieters 2: Electric Boogaloo land on the continuum?

Ben Clemens

3:06

This is a thing we don't mention because we don't want to speak it into existence

the longer Adley goes without hitting, the more likely this gets

catchers, man

Paul H

3:06

Starting Pitchers - Curious about Zips methodology - I have good SPs this year in one of my AL only leagues, but J Soriano is the most frustrating - Zips has him ranked #31, which is next to last of my starters (only Mize is lower). Other rankers, e.g., Depth Charts and Steamer have Soriano as 2nd to bes of my starters. What is going on if you have time?

Ben Clemens

3:07

it basically looks like ZiPS is projecting a pretty big ERA/FIP gap, while Steamer is doing so in the opposite direction

I have to say, I don't get ZiPS's, maybe it's comparing him to some archetype of pitchers? his career doesn't show big splits

Guest

3:07

Rafaela also said on the broadcast last night CF is where he’s most comfortable

Ben Clemens

3:08

I mean.... you could also just watch him play to see that

he looks very unceratin at second, and like a dolphin in a cove in the outfield

it's so confusing!

Ikl

3:08

Hi Ben can u explain a players War vs the eyball test? Pete Alonso has a WAR now of 2.7 Soto's is above 4...is Soto more valuble to the team than Alonso this year despite not hitting for a high average with risp?

Ben Clemens

3:09

so, this is a funny one, because Soto has actually produced more WPA than Alonso despite being very un-clutch

3:10

you can think of WPA as pretty simple. for every tiem they bat, we look at how likely the mets were to win before the AB, then after the AB

the difference is how much win probability they added with that at-bat

even though Soto has been poor in high-leverage spots relative to Alonso, he's been a LOT better in mid and low leverage spots

so we have this stat "clutch"

3:11

Soto is -1.9 wins worth of clutch. Alonso is +1.16 wins worht of clutch. And despite that, Alonso has added 2.86 wins worth of value this year per WPA, while Soto has added 3.21

another stat, RE24, tries to look at how a hitter has done at adding runs GIVEN THE BASE/OUT SITUATION WHEN HE BATS

via that one, Soto has been a much better hitter than Alonso

3:12

so basically I'd say that yes, Soto has been more valuable to the team despite not hitting for a higih average with RISP, because there are a ton of other things you can do to be valuable

like, get on base

also, for his career, Alonso has been -3 wins of clutch. "clutch" isn't very sticky

21127

3:13

The early comment on how many pitches to get off the starter with the second hitter. The max number is around 40 when the manager has to lift the starter for too many pitches in the inning, right?

Ben Clemens

3:13

yeah there's some top end where it's obviously valuable

but I don't know what that exact limit is

Hunter

3:13

Does Trea Turner have an outside shot at NL MVP? He's not far behind Ohtani in fWAR but I have heard his name discussed far less than PCA or even Schwarber.

Ben Clemens

3:13

honestly I don't think so

3:14

so much of his value is being driven by his huge defensive season, which is a Statcast Fielding Runs Value phenomenon

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