JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/26/24

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Ben Clemens

2:10

Scott Servais had a winning record as Mariners manager and got fired

Bud Black is 524-639 and not

so like... the expectations here are clearly different, and the actual results have been pretty different too

2:11

I do not think these situations are the same at all

Nick 1992

2:11

How did scouts measure bat speed before stat cast? Like, in the Gary Sheffield era, did it just look like he swings fast?

Ben Clemens

2:11

yeah basically

but contact quality on squared up balls is a great proxy

2:12

the ball got small fast when he hit it, everyone always says

Joey Votto

2:13

Am I going to the Hall of Fame? Some of my top arguments: People value OBP a lot more than they used to and Todd Helton is in.

Ben Clemens

2:13

I think it's a for sure yes

Judge

2:13

No one alive has seen offense like this without an obvious Giant Head situation.

Ben Clemens

2:14

people who are alive have seen ted williams play, peak mantle too

Guest

2:14

What do you think will happen with Gerrit Cole's contract? He can opt out of the remaining 4/144M, but the Yankees can void the opt out by adding another year at 1/36M

Ben Clemens

2:14

I think that's exactly what's gonna happen

Tim Lincecum

2:14

Who is the current short of stature, long striding pitcher? Stroman?

Ben Clemens

2:14

Jared Jones

2:15

In last week's chat you wrote about how having Yoshida at DH resulted in Abreu in the OF, pushing Rafaela at SS where he's a huge minus vs CF where he's a huge plus. While I think the numbers might agree with you on the defense, the scouting might have it a bit closer. You also don't factor in that Rafaela in CF means Gonzalez, Sogard, Valdez, some rando playing middle infield. The difference between their bats and Yoshida's is enough to make up for the Rafaela CF/SS difference.

Ben Clemens

2:15

the scouting does not have it closer from anything i've heard

2:16

obviously I don't spend all day asking scouts what they think of Raffaela's defense at two different positions

2:17

Rafaela*

all the double letters in the first name are mixing me up about the last name

2:18

but like.... a lot of scouts think he'll be able to be a great shortstop

but he's obviously elite as a center fielder right now

and they're leaving a lot on the table, at the moment, by playing him at a place where he has, objectively, not done well, instead of a place where the eye test and stat test completely agree that he's great

Judge

2:19

You're right in terms of length but I just meant single season wRC+

Ben Clemens

2:19

ah yeah

2:19

Jones is 6'1. Not tall by pitching standards but hardly short of stature.

Ben Clemens

2:19

I mean, Lincecum is 5'11"

Strider's 6'0" if two inches is too much

HappyFunBall

2:19

If you sort the FG career leaderboards by wRC+, Judge and Bonds are both 173, but Judge is listed first. Both are ahead of Mantle

Ben Clemens

2:20

No age-decline phase for Judge yet, so obviously he's gonna look great

Mantle was a peak-over-career type, though

like his incandescent years were just outrageous

2:21

the 10 year stretch from 22-31 in age, he hit .313/.441/.606, 183 wRC+, goodness

john

2:21

Heartened by how many close races we have this season. Is there an easy way to use Fangraphs to compare how competitive this season has been compare to the historical average?

Some kind of comparison of the percentage of teams with competitive records?

Ben Clemens

2:21

you can get the records and playoff odds in our odds viewers, this sounds like an article I'd be interested in writing in September

Nic

2:21

Thanks for answering my question! Funny story, that's goes to your answer that people aren't amazed enough. I was lucky enough to be at the Yankee game Sunday, and after the 3 Homer inning, a guy in my section started asking people if they'd rather start a team with Ohtani or Judge. He was trying to argue for Ohtani, by saying that Ohtani's also great hitter loke Judge and can pitch. So I was curious, I asked him how much better a hitter he thinks Judge is than Ohtani. He said they were close. When I said that per WRC+ Judge is almost 40% better, his mind was blown and basically just bravo and the conversation ended. Anyway, you are right. People have no idea how exceptional this is.

Ben Clemens

2:22

yeah it's really nuts

I think I talked about this some in the trade value series

People's brains are good at ordinal ranking but degree is tough

Connecting…