JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/26/24

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/26/24

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Ben Clemens

2:22

"Judge is hitter #1, Ohtani #2"

maybe true, Soto might have something to say about that, who knows

but those sound close

2:23

but another way of looking at it is that Judge is 84 runs above average offensively this year.... Soto 57, Ohtani 55, Witt 52, Gunnar 42, and so on

the difference between Judge #1 and Soto #2 is the same as the gap between Soto and Rafael Devers, #12

Judge

2:24

how many 200+ wRC+ seasons do I need to make up for my lack of counting stats, in order to make the hall? or is my current peak already good enough?

Ben Clemens

2:24

I think Judge is going to be a hall of famer

2:25

he doesn't qualify by the rules right now, so in a very technical sense, his current peak is not good enough

but if he just plays kinda blah baseball for two years to get to 10, how are you not putting this guy, whose peak is the most monstrous of the modern era, in the hall?

2:26

the counting stats are there, he has about as much WAR as David Ortiz, so it's not like we can't put modern players in at this level

and the homers, the extreme dominance, etc.

Brian

2:26

36 year old Mickey Mantle retired after hitting 237/385/398 which was good for a 145 wRC+

Ben Clemens

2:26

much worse than his career numbers!

what a guy

IV

2:27

As someone who wishes they coded more, Nick Wan's presentation seemed interesting. Did you happen to catch that one and what were your thoughts?

Ben Clemens

2:27

It was interesting, my thoughts were that it was kinda hard to keep up live and that I was hungry for lunch

that said, he has a YouTube channel with a coding bootcamp

D

2:28

Okay even assuming the difference between Rafaela's defense in CF and SS is as vast as you contend, you still have to account for the difference between having Yoshida's bat in the lineup vs. the parade of 2B.

Ben Clemens

2:28

sure, as I'm pretty sure I mentioned at the time, I'm talking about the long-term fit

you can see why the Sox are doign it

2:29

but it's doing him a long-term disservice

and the team is constructed suboptimally, unquestionably, in that specific place

the person who asks the lunch question

2:29

what's for lunch?

Ben Clemens

2:29

I actually don't know yet, I'm gonna scramble around and figure it out

73?

2:29

There was an interesting article in The Athletic where Brendan Kuty asked Yankees players if they think Judge can ever hit 73. They all said yes. What do you think?

Ben Clemens

2:29

Can, yeah

2:30

The guy is just so good when he's on

Will, no

like even the very best hitters need to get lucky to do that

Mariners fan

2:30

What’s the easiest way to access past projections? I want to prove a point that Mariners offensive acquisitions have regularly underperformed their projections, even on a park-adjusted basis?

Ben Clemens

2:30

it's tough. Dan's preseason ZiPS are available for pretty much forever b/c they're articles and you can just look them up

but systematically? gotta pay for it, I pay for Steamer database access

NL MVP

2:31

What are the chances that Lindor wins MVP?

Ben Clemens

2:31

Maybe like 10%?

that looks close enough on the various gambling lines I'm seeing, and feels close to what I'd expect in reality

Wild rule/stat change proposal

2:31

If a pitcher picks a runner off a base and he allowed that runner on, the H, BB, or HBP still counts offensively and game wise, but it shall be removed from the pitcher's stat line. A well deserved award for an impressive rare feat. Too out there?

Ben Clemens

2:31

I'd just say, why?

2:32

it's not liek the thing didn't happen

did the runner score? nope!

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