JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/26/24

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Ben Clemens

2:32

but it's not like they didn't give up that hit

AL Central Casting

2:32

Why do some fans still have a problem understanding that platoon splits are a real thing? They get mad if a "superior" hitter is PH for in a leverage spot where they don't have the platoon advantage - and often argue that they won't get better against same-side pitching if they aren't given a chance.

Ben Clemens

2:32

I think the second argument is pretty good!

they probably won't

2:34

and there's a platoon pinch hitting penalty

it's pretty rare that a pinch hitting decision is significantly great

but in genral, I'd say that the amount people get worked up about pinch hitting is just too high in general

2:34

Between the White Sox, A's, and Rockies, who all seem to be committed to rebuilds, which are you most optimistic on becoming competitive again in a few years?

Ben Clemens

2:35

the A's even though I'm not particularly confident in any of them

just b/c they're the least of a wreck

Brian

2:35

everyone probably thought the Mick was washed because he hit .237 but he was still 45% better than average!!!

Chip

2:35

What's your take on Jordan Montgomery trashing Boras? Seems to me the market just totally disagreed with his view of his own value. Hard to blame his agent for nobody wanting to give him $100mm, especially when he proceeds to go out and throw up a >6 ERA.

Ben Clemens

2:35

I mean, what do you want him to do, not trash Boras?

seems like he probably should have settled for a lower-dollar longer-term deal early on, but didn't

and I dunno, I'd be grumpy about that too

2:36

I don't think Boras has suddenly lost it or anything. But I understand why Montgomery's annoyed

Guest

2:36

I saw your response to the Ohtani/Judge hitting question but what are your thoughts to "a guy in my section started asking people if they'd rather start a team with Ohtani or Judge."

Ben Clemens

2:36

yeah.... I think it depends a ton on the other parts of this exercise

like are we getting a good enough setup that I'm going to be contending right away?

should I count on not getting good for three years? do I need to trade these guys for parts right away because my team is bad?

Victoria

2:36

How do you personally balance OOA and DRS when looking at defensive metrics?

Ben Clemens

2:37

I've been doing 2/3 OAA and 1/3 DRS but I need to look into this more systematically

and I'm planning on it in the offeseason

Talfred

2:37

Soto's numbers would have him within striking distance for the NL Triple Crown, and he's miles behind Judge.

Ben Clemens

2:37

It's just nuts, right?

Soto is putting together the season I always thought his numbers suggested

2:38

Ted Williams clone kinda lines

and like, nope, not even close to the best hitter in the league

Harper

2:39

Judge has more bwar than Harper and Harper will soon deserve HOF. Harper has 5 seasons on Judge

Ben Clemens

2:39

Yup, another good way of looking at it

Chip

2:39

If you're the Yankees, how does a Soto negotiation go? Like 'go find the best offer, and we'll give you that'? There can't be a number that the Yankees balk at, having Judge and Soto anchoring a lineup for years to come is just too valuable.

Ben Clemens

2:40

yeah or like 'here's our big offer, you can go out and find another if you'd like but we're giving you this big one to show we're serious and would love a last look'

Liam

2:40

I had no idea you were there this weekend Ben! Do you have any notes on my presentation? (pitch arsenal variance across organizations)

Ben Clemens

2:41

Yeah, hi! We talked about it some and thought the ambiguous findings at the AAA/ML levels were kinda unsurprising, that it'd be more interesting if you could get the data for low-level pitching to see what happens when teams mold guys when they're more in their formative years

separately I thought the case studies of the specific org pitch changes were cool

Clayton

2:41

Kershaw has beaten his FIP almost every year of his career, and has maintained a 0.3 ERA-FIP difference across his 2700 career innings. Is he just better than his FIP indicates? Or is this mostly just good defense + favorable park factors?

Ben Clemens

2:41

clearly talent, right?

2700 innings

he's allowing fewer runs than a very crude formula indicates

2:42

at some point you just have to say okay, the formula with only three inputs probably doesn't exactly predict and match reality

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