JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/28/23

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Ben Clemens

2:27

100%

Guest

2:27

Why is Nootbaar’s injury described as an abdomen?

Ben Clemens

2:27

because we can't say that he got hit in the noots

mmddyyyy

2:27

Is there a systemic reason the central divisions are weak?

Ben Clemens

2:27

The best argument I have is a geographical one

2:28

The biggest cities and thus budgets tend to congregate on the coasts

That's particularly true since Texas has two teams that are both in the "west"

instead of the central; Houston is pretty much due south of Kansas City, for example

2:29

but really, what it comes down to is that rust belt cities don't spend like New York/LA/SF/Texas

I think that's a huge structural issue

2:29

When's the last time an MLB season has been this surprising? I think there are going to be exceedingly few pre-season predictions that got even 7 of 10 playoff teams correct, depending on how things shake out this next month.

Ben Clemens

2:30

This sounds like a great question to answer with our playoff odds, so I'm probably going to write something about this at the end of the year

2:31

but it also gives me a chance to look at my own predictions. I got: BAL, HOU, MIN, SEA, TBR, LAD, ATL, and potentially the Giants

so like.... yeah not great

2:32

randomly sampling someone else, Dan Szymborski got: ATL, LAD, MIL, HOU, TBR, SEA, and maybe TOR

I feel like the real surprises have not been the misses -- yeah almost everyone had the Cards Mets and Padres making it, but it's not like there are THAT many other surprises

but just how badly those have missed

no one picked any of those teams to finish where they did in the division

Colton

2:32

Cardinals said they were going to be in play for 3 SP's this offseason, one of which being the Nola, Urias or Snell. For a team that's never went out and spent big in free agency this is a bit of a red flag in my opinion because it signals desperation to me and that they really don't know where the team is going. Do you have any opinions about this statement and the state of the team moving forward?

Ben Clemens

2:33

I think they should go be in play for three starting pitchers

if you made me pick two weaknesses of the current Cardinals regime, it'd be developing pitching and understanding when they need to push the budget to make up for internal weakness

2:34

The '16-'19 Cardinals were notable because they had some nice homegrown players, and the team did NOTHING to support them in free agency

so I think this is a welcome change. Like, obviously their pitching is bad

I don't think sticking their heads in the sand this winter would make me MORE confident in them

mmddyyyy

2:34

Would the trade deadline go differently the year before an expansion team/draft?

Ben Clemens

2:35

It would for sure, but how much differently would depend on the timing of roster protection. Basically teams that have really stuffed rosters would more aggressively try to consolidate, because they know a lot of the players they're trading would get taken in an expansion draft otherwise

Trout

2:35

Sean Murphy's second half wRC+ is lower than any of his individual months. How is that?

Ben Clemens

2:36

It's because halves don't break up evenly by months, they split at the All Star break. Murphy hit .444/.524/1.111 in six pre-ASB games in July, goodness

And then .105/.227/.132 the rest of July, whoops

that's a heck of a one-month turnaroudn though

Mike

2:37

Does the service time construct still work in today's MLB, especially as it relates to relievers who are shuffled back and forth, pitch three innings to save a bullpen and then go back down immediately?

Ben Clemens

2:37

No, it's pretty detrimental to pitchers particularly, like you said

I think that's unlikely to get bargained away meaningfully, though. THe system doesn't value relievers much if you use them that way, so teams are just gonna keep doing it. It's cost effective and also just effective

Baseball Philosopher

2:37

Re. marginal utility player question. I have always been curious about a "strength of schedule" type metric. Would be interesting to see, over a season long, who faced the "easiest" and "hardest" pitchers. Same for a career too!

Ben Clemens

2:37

Yeah this would be really cool, I think

Wither Wander

2:38

I'm a bit surprised that FanGraphs hasn't had any pieces about the troubling reports behind the absence of one of the game's biggest names and brightest starts from one of its best teams. I always appreciate how FanGraphs handles difficult matters thoughtfully and with care, so when should we expect to read more about the Wander Franco move to the restricted list, here?

Ben Clemens

2:38

Probably when there's anything on the record about it, but don't take my word for it

That's just when I'd feel comfortable discussing it

mmddyyyy

2:38

Are player agents paid when the contract is signed or paid? Thinking of Strasburg's case

Ben Clemens

2:38

They're paid as a percentage of each check the player receives

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