JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/28/23

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mmddyyyy

2:38

Do you get more questions about players who are struggling or players who are succeeding?

Ben Clemens

2:39

Succeeding, but only by a hair

I used to keep track of it, actually, because I was really curious

Guest

2:39

Even more un-fun fact re: injured lists: If you looked at both LA teams' ILs and also included "pitching Ohtani", not only is that enough for a full team, but it might be enough to win the AL Central itself. By no means would it be perfect (back of the rotation and bullpen look shaky, 3B is middling, LF relies a lot on Adell finally turning it around), but that wouldn't be an easy team to face either.

Ben Clemens

2:39

'win the AL central', so you're saying they'd be about as good as the actual Angels have been this year

Kirk

2:39

Mariners? Mariners.

Frame Frame go Away

2:39

All of the sudden the AL West is loaded with young catching talent that can hit. Which AL West catcher do you take next 3 years?

Ben Clemens

2:39

I think I'd do the unwise thing and bet on Diaz's upside

2:40

I think the percentage pick is Heim, with O'Hoppe next

Freddie Freeman

2:40

Chances I set the modern era doubles record? I have 50 and it's not even Sept 1

Ben Clemens

2:40

I'm looking this record up right now

2:41

59 by 2000 Todd Helton, wow

ZiPS actually projects him to tie the record

that's amazing

I think there's a 40% chance of you setting it, I could see the Dodgers sitting him

Greedo

2:41

Oona goota Candelario?

Ben Clemens

2:42

flows right off the tongue

mmddyyyy

2:42

Is the list of things you liked this week a living document or is it born every Thursday night?

Ben Clemens

2:42

It's more the former than the latter for sure, and it's usually done Thursday afternoon

I just keep a notes document in my phone, and every time I see a play I like, I write it down

then I look at those, pick a few favorites, and go over what I'm thinking with Meg

2:43

sometimes I'm a few short, or two of them don't play well together, and we have to improvise - I'd say 10% or so are suggested by her rather than me. But for the most part, I know what I'm going to be writing baout before Thursday morning

Random Fact Generator

2:43

If Anthony Rendon was only being paid per homerun on his current contract he would have made $6,047,619.05 batting lefthanded.

Jason N

2:44

I think Todd Worrell had a 90mph changeup

Ben Clemens

2:44

Eh, I think starters doing it feels a little different, plus now a lot of guys do it. But yeah, I bet some of the big stuff relievers of the 80s and 90s would have a field day with Pitching Ninja

v2micca

2:44

How does Wheeler have half a game lead on Strider in fWAR? They have nearly the same number of innings pitched, and Strider edges Wheeler in xERA, FIP, and xFIP. I know park factors and team defense play a roll, but it seems like those shouldn't be giving this much of a lead to Wheeler.

Ben Clemens

2:45

So, xERA and xFIP aren't components of WAR, just FIP

so Strider has a lower FIP, but in an easier pitcher's park. Then we add an additional transformation, we count infield pop ups the same as strikeouts

You don't see this in our FIP, but it accrues to WAR

2:46

because an infield pop out is just an out

Wheeler has 10 extra on Strider, so that's like 10K's per our formula

it's an attempt to account for the batted balls where there's no luck involved, they're just outs every time

actually, the park factors are kinda the same now that I'm looking

2:47

so it's just that and the five extra innings

Sodo Mojo

2:47

I am guessing prime Randy Johnson Change Up was over 90

Matt Damon

2:47

MATT. DAMON.

RAH

2:47

I just wanted to say how happy I am that the Orioles are having a pregame ceremony in September to honor Adam Jones and retire him as an Oriole... this after hearing over the last few years that the relationship between Jones and the O's was rocky and he wasn't invited to different O's alumni events.

Ben Clemens

2:47

Totally agree, I really enjoy Adam Jones and the more he is around, the happier I am

Alf

2:47

Is there a feasible alternative to TJ? Obviously nobody wants to get surgery as a first option. Are you saying that doctors/teams are too quick to recommend TJ?

Ben Clemens

2:48

No, I (and the questioner) were specifically talking about a strain of youth coaches/baseball thinkers who say "everyone gets TJ, might as well just get it out of the way"

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