JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/4/25

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/4/25

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Eli

1:45

Can you weigh in on an aggrieved fan debate? My BoSox loving spouse feels that trading Mookie and Devers is a much worse insult to fans than keeping Aaron Boone, while I argue that the Boone aspect is a sign of a front office/ownership that is very comfortable with mediocrity and a bigger finger-flip to fans than trading expensive (and maybe declining) stars. Thoughts?

Ben Clemens

1:46

I lean towards your spouse's perspective because I have a ton of baseball fans in my life who are not FanGraphs readers, and the number one thing they care about is their team's stars

I went with a bunch of friends to the Dead and Company show this weekend

(side note, it was incredible, I've wanted to go see them and they literally played the park a mile from my apartment, 10/10 experience)

and they're casual baseball fans

1:47

they were upset about the GIants trading the dudes they knew, who weren't even stars

I think that overall, players just matter more than managers

1:48

and so trading the recognizable players whose jerseys fans own is a bummer

how correlated it is with wining? I'm not sure. but how correlated it is with enjoying fandom? stars matter a lot

the person who asks the lunch question

1:48

What's for lunch?

Ben Clemens

1:49

buffalo caesar

it's semi-premade, just gotta assemble some stuff and air fry the chicken

>this person<at *B*

1:49

On the Twins -and team sales writ large- are we really believing that *B*illionaires won't buy a Billion dollar vanity asset that will only appreciate because one guy gets get paid 30 mil/yr? Is there even background documentation of this in real life in some past sales?

Edouard Boolean

1:49

Re the Twins: maybe I'm naive, but why is it gospel that you need to tear the team down to the studs if you're going to sell? (I recall a similar dynamic with the Nationals and trading vs trying to extend Soto when they were considering selling) Basically, why does selling the team=moving good players? I know franchise value is not tied to onfield performance meaningfully, but surely a team with established stars who can put butts in seats and sell a few more jerseys is worth more than one without

Ben Clemens

1:49

I mean, I'm generally with you guys. I think this behavior is kinda silly

I'm not a billionaire, though

trophy

2

1:50

it's definitely been the case that teams seem to lop off their debt before trying to sell

so maybe some purchasing group is pushing this? maybe there's some discounted cash flow model that all the teams share that cares a lot about that? I don't have a great answer for you on this

1:51

but it does seem clear to me that teams dislike having long contracts (unless they're clearly good) when they are trying to sell

>this person<

1:51

"it's definitely been the case that teams seem to lop off their debt before trying to sell" yet they will allow a group with tons of debt financing to buy

Ben Clemens

1:51

how are you gonna do the debt financing to buy if the team's already in debt??

(there's probably some truth to this, honestly)

Mariners Fan

1:51

Did the returns for Duran and Miller change your perspective on the trade value of elite closers? Would a team have given up the #3 prospect in baseball for Jordan Westburg and JP Sears?

Ben Clemens

1:51

like, maybe a little?

1:52

I don't think De Vries is the #3 prospect in baseball, for the record

if anything, it's made me even more sure that I should keep pushing accumulators and okay players down the list

so maybe that's Westburg and Jacob Wilson, those kinds of guys

1:53

but like, on the other hand, there were some interesting long control players (Ryan, Duran, Abreu, etc) who De Vries couldn't get in trade even though the Padres surely wanted those guys

DeeBo

1:53

There’s a lot to say about AJ Preller - and a lot has been said - but do you think that at least some part of his freewheeling approach to prospects owes to the fact that he sees the Padres as X% better than the rest of the league at drafting and developing? Otherwise the discount rate he places on future value makes little sense

Ben Clemens

1:53

I think there's some of this

1:54

I alluded to it a bit in my trade deadline writeup, but I think that he values minor league spots pretty highly

as in, if I trade a bunch of volume of prospects, I will have more plyaing time and developmental focus from coaches to give to new guys

and honestly, it seems to work for them

they do a great job of churning the mid-tier prospects in their org

I bet you they'll find some more interesting names in R5/UDFA/late rounds, etc.

Guest

1:54

Do fans really care about who is on the back of the jersey or do they mostly care about winning?

Ben Clemens

1:55

well, that's a pretty tough question to answer of course

but surely it's both?

Dan'l

1:55

When "should" the Cards start spending again? Their payroll drops a decent amount the next two years, and they continue to have a decent-but-no-stars roster.

Ben Clemens

1:56

Tough question based on how Wetherholt and the youths do

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