JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/4/25

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Ben Clemens

1:56

but like.... soon?

2027? try to do a bunch of extensions in 2026?

GOMS🔱

1:56

hi Ben!chances of mariners making the postseason and ws with this roster?

Ben Clemens

1:57

I'm sure this is not as helpful as you hoped, but our playoff odds have them at 81% and 8%, and gambling markets are probably more like 70-75% and 6%?

1:58

that range seems fine with me

Opifijikl

1:58

Re the Padres and Preller valuing MiLB spots highly - do they cut players more/less than the average team to try to keep the churn of prospects if they can't trade them?

Ben Clemens

1:58

We may never know because he's just so dang good at trading guys

Vinnie Capicola

1:58

I see a lot of talking heads down on the Giants for their trade deadline - I imagine it mostly comes from having a win-now move with bringing in Devers. Is it homerism or do you also think they did a good job of "threading the needle" for 2025 *and* 2026?

Ben Clemens

1:58

yeah, I was fine with their deadline

1:59

like I'm not saying it's a good thing to be in a place where the guys the Mets can't easily fit on their 40-man roster are way better than your 40-man options

but here they are! and so they did the write thing in my opinion

right* jeez

I just don't think they could have done a lot differently. not a notably great deadline but certainly not bad in my opinion

TooDamnTall

1:59

Hey Ben, I just arrived in Vietnam an hour ago and appreciate the Kurtz article tie-in.

Ben Clemens

1:59

love it

>this person<

2:00

re debt financing I meant that an incoming group can borrow a lot to buy (even if they have the cash) and then cry poverty and budgets when they fire all the scouts and increase the hot dog prices 84%

Ben Clemens

2:00

yeah, I'm with you

but it's tough to get that debt at a good rate if the team is already levered up

so maybe the idea is that you try to make the team debt-free so that the new guy can burden it

Oaktown Blues

2:00

Even though the A's did really well in the Miller trade, would you agree that it probably made them worse in 2026?

Ben Clemens

2:00

oh most definitely

i mean, the most common outcome is that it makes them worse, period

2:01

you make up for that by having really good right tails

like in the cases where it makes them better, it makes them a LOT better

the ceiling on De Vries is meaningfully higher than the ceiling on Miller

Sorpresas

2:01

Playoff Odds have all six of the current NL teams over 90% and all six of the current AL teams over 75%, will it go all chalk or will somebody sneak in over the last two months?

Ben Clemens

2:01

I think 2 teams not currently in playoff position will end up th ere

2:02

just to pick a number

Rox

2:02

Re-Rockies in the top 10. Do you think the Orioles would have been as fun team the last couple of years with the same rules?

Ben Clemens

2:02

but why are we rewarding them for being anti-competitive/

the O's hvae made baseball in Baltimore worse for a generation