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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/7/23

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Ben Clemens

3:25

why have guys like Spencer Torkelson and Alika Williams (first round picks in 2020) struggled while Kole Calhoun and Jason Kipnis exceeded expectations?

MilwaukeeBeerJays

3:25

Tampa has come back to earth quite a bit. Who scares you in the.playoffs more: jays, rays or O's?

Ben Clemens

3:25

Jays I think, you can imagine them just turning out the lights with Gausman and Good Berrios, with a ton of hitting to go with that

Dexter

3:25

Has the Chisholm to CF been a success? What exactly is his ceiling?

Ben Clemens

3:26

It's too soon to say, but I'm not optimistic because he's always been injury prone and that's accelerated this year

Sometimes the wear and tear of center is not good for you

3:27

In terms of his ability to adapt to center, yeah, his routes and reactions have improved markedly

I remember watching an April game where Keith Hernandez was shocked by how bad his jumps were

and now he looks a lot better

but he can't stay on the field

slew(Seattle)

3:27

Hit enter before the rest of the comment: .....and I think the Guardians banking on the development pipeline always being full is foolish. They're a busted pitching prospect or two from being really awful.

Ben Clemens

3:28

Yep to this too!

I think it's a risky strategy

that said, you probably need to take risky strategies if you're going to try to make the playoffs every year while running a miniscule payroll

3:29

I think that the general view that teams should minimize risk is wrong. There are times to embrace risk and try strategies with big payoffs, and I think trading Civale is a good exmaple of that, even if I don't love Manzardo as a return

likewise the Rays were in a great spot to reduce risk by adding Civale

I think of that trade as a risk transfer, the Rays were willing to damp volatility and the Guardians probably want a little

how many years of some slap hitters and Jose Ramirez can one team handle?

Henceforth

3:30

Will Tink Hence be on the opening day roster for the cards next season? If so what are your expectations for his performance?

Ben Clemens

3:30

I do not think he will be

largely because I think they want to manage his innings

He's only thrown 66 this year, he's not gonna suddenly throw 180 next year

>this guy<

3:30

That's fair I just didnt know if there was "a thing" they are not doing/doing

Ben Clemens

3:30

Oh yeah.... nothing springs to mind

It used to be the case that velocity was meaningfully lower in NPB but that's been less true recently

Stephen

3:31

Not a question but adding on] the best thing about teams like the Mets being out of it is how cheap the tickets have gotten. My brother is in town with his family and you can get pretty good seats for under $30 including fees and my niece and nephew are too young to care that the Mets traded away all their good players. But for my personal experience, I don't enjoy going to games when the Yankees are bad and aren't expecting to win.

Ben Clemens

3:31

That was not hte best thing when I had a 20-game ticket package, b/c I liked reselling the big games and getting two worse games for my money and that was tough when they sucked

an ebbing tide lowers all boats

but yeah, it's great if you're not living and dying with the team's chances

Guest

3:31

The Guardians are good at developing pitchers. The Giants are good at super-platooning. The Astros are good at data to find pitchers. The Red Sox are good at____?

Ben Clemens

3:32

I think they're pretty good at getting the most out of the roster they have

they fit together some unlike parts seemingly pretty well every year

Sam

3:32

Do the tigers stretch Skubal out to 6innings this year? Have you looked at his home/road splits? Guy must have the comfiest bed in the Detroit suburbs

Ben Clemens

3:32

I hadn't but now I have, dang yeah

He should be a Serta (or Purple or whatever) spokesperson

3:33

or do the Mookie Betts thing where he travels with a ton of stuff so that he can regulate his body more

>this guy<

3:33

Re Red Sox are good at getting most out of their roster- does that make them the ALE Brewers?

Ben Clemens

3:33

If it weren't for the Rays, yes

3:33

does managing a young pitchers workload have any actual proof of working? or is it just "that seems like something that would be a good idea, lets do that"

Ben Clemens

3:33

I am definitely not following the cutting edge of research here. I think it is definitely true that huge increases in workload are riskier than gradual ramp-ups

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