JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/12/22

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Ben Clemens

2:17

That said, Harris is no slouch. Being worse than Julio in terms of hard hit rate isn't so bd

bad*

Ken

2:18

What's your general outlook on Brujan? This season has really been dampening my excitement, so curious where you're at on expectations at this point.

Ben Clemens

2:19

Yeah, I'm down on him. I don't think he's a lost cause or anything, but time's running out for him on the Rays. He's gonna get low on options, and it's just hard to be a major league caliber hitter if you're not making impact contact more frequently than he does. Particularly if you swing so aggressively

I think he might end up as a reclamation project somewhere else. I basically don't think the profile plays unless he can add power

Robert

2:19

Looking at the timing of the M's turnaround this year do you credit the Santana addition and his veteran leadership or Winker trying to fight the Angels alone and pulling together the team?

Ben Clemens

2:19

Wait, it has to be one of those two things?

Leland

2:20

Why is Jesse Winker just...bad? Is it more lingering health concerns or did his approach crater overnight?

Ben Clemens

2:21

He just took on too much of a leadership role. Bit of a Peter Principle, he kept getting promoted until he was the heart and soul of the team

No, I don't have an obvious answer here. I don't think he's as bad as you make him out to be, but he's definitely lost some pop which really hurts given the rest of his profile

2:23

He's had occasional flashes, but for the most part he's just having more downs in hard hit rate than ever before. To me that sounds like injury, particularly given that he's remained disciplined at the plate, but it's hard to know if injury is affecting him b/c I'm not sure even he knows

Benny

2:23

Who does your crystal ball have winning the NL East and AL Central? More importantly, are the O's gonna do this thing?

Ben Clemens

2:23

Mets and Guardians

And uh, definitely not sadly

2:24

I'd love to see it, it would be really fun and I get to claim hereditary O's fan status b/c my mom is a lifelong fan

(my family is from the DC area)

(the family that isn't from St. Louis)

2:24

Re: trying to pick your playoff seed, you don't mess with it because the Baseball GodsTM will come back and smite you, like the time USA Today picked "Detroit in 3 games" in the '06 Series.

Ben Clemens

2:25

Right, whether or not that's true, it probably wouldn't feel great to the players in the clubhouse

Kwanbelievable

2:25

I have a theory now (thanks Karinchak) that pitchers should theoretically get better as the temperature heats up and they sweat more to mix with rosin. Is there any way to measure if that's real by comparing to the expected effect of increased batted ball distance in the summer? Or am I totally off my rocker?

Ben Clemens

2:26

I think a much easier way would be to just find a major league caliber pitcher to throw some pitches with sweat and rosin in different conditions

trying to infer it from expected batted ball distance, with new humidors and confusing weather and baseball actively goofing with the ball, seems like a tough way to handle it

Jeff in Jersey

2:26

Not that I expect you to know the Mets bullpen in & out, but apparently the brass is telling Tylor Megill that he has to earn his way back. He's been dominant in rehab. Can't you see him as a top arm in that pen? Surely better than Tommy Hunter?

Ben Clemens

2:27

maybe they mean as a starter? Hey, Tommy Hunter has a 2.75 ERA (though meh peripherals)

I don't think it'd be crazy to say they want him as a starter, so he'll either be a fifth starter or a long man

2:28

trying to convert him into high-leverage relief and then back out of it next year sounds too cute to me

Lineups/Injuries

2:28

Even if only some return, is there precedent for a (very likely) first place team having what will be such a different lineup between whatever Judge and co was about a week ago to what the team may run out there in early October? Aside from the old version of Sept callups.

Ben Clemens

2:28

Yeah I briefly tried to research whether the lineup for one of the Twins doubleheader games would be the worst ever lineup that included an MVP assuming Judge wins it

it has been..... wow

Jack

2:28

Winker, Benintendi, Kirilloff. How would you rank them for 2023?

Ben Clemens

2:28

for real baseball, I'd go KBW. For fantasy baseball, kinda depends on the categories

Dancing dan

2:28

does Correa opt out?

Ben Clemens

2:29

I think yes, but it's gonna come down to whether he wants to run it back with Minnesota

if he does, why not take another one year yo?

Rokwn Bat

2:29

McCarthy of Snakes is a former #1 first round pick. Rated #25 on Prpsect list of deep Farm. Per EL he changed his batting approach and now has more power. Obvious speed. His performance so far.., SSS or is he this good?

Ben Clemens

2:29

I do not think he's as good as his last month or so, b/c there just aren't that many plyaers of that caliber

2:30

But I tihnk he's a completely real major league player, and you could easily talk me into him being an average hitter. An average hitter with his speed is a really valuable player

Dancing dan mcgraw

2:30

How good does Hader have to be for the Yankees to feel good about this trade?

Ben Clemens

2:30

Good enough to knock the Dodgers out of the playoffs so the Yankees don't have to face them in the WS

2:31

but as for Bader, I think he needs to be an average hitter with GG-caliber CF defense

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