JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/12/22

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Ben Clemens

2:31

that would go a LONG way towards fixing the Yankees' offensive grossness. Getting to run an outfield of Beni/Bader/Judge gives you elite defensive prowess out there

With no bad bats. It's a big step up from Hicks/Judge/Florial or whatever

Guest

2:31

If you ultimate goal as a manager is to max out Pujols home runs do you actually start him every day or does sitting verse a eighty rest him enough for future days to out homer the potential from the missed ABs?

Ben Clemens

2:31

He needs rest days for sure

I dunno how many

2:32

But having him DH a ton would help as well

Jay

2:32

What are the best stats to predict future home runs?

Ben Clemens

2:32

barrel rate, ground ball rate (lower is better), hard hit rate would be my top 3

oh, chase rate, lower being better

2:33

b/c we care not just about what fraction of batted balls become homers, but what fraction of PA's end with a ball in play, and if you chase a ton that's no good

John

2:33

A lot of talk about which hitters (LH pull hitters, stolen base guys) are likely to benefit most from rules changes. Is there a certain type of pitcher you think is likely to benefit most/ be adversely affected least?

Ben Clemens

2:33

fly ball pitchers

and strikeout guys

but I don't think there'll be a huge spread

lou harrison bader

2:33

I was under the impression that there is no standard infield size.... This has been brought up in dodger broadcasts in reference to trea turners positioning struggles earlier in the season due to his unfamiliarity with the larger infield in Los Angeles (he apparently always used the outfield grass as a reference point).

Ben Clemens

2:33

That's definitely possible. I haven't thought about it too much. Still think teams aren't gonna change their infield dimensions to mess around with shifting

David

2:34

Is there some sort of rule-of-thumb for comparing the value of a great but frequently injured player vs. a good, consistently healthy player? I’m wondering how to weight the value of someone like DeGrom, who can put the team on his back but can never be relied on.

Ben Clemens

2:34

well, WAR does a pretty good job of this

it maybe doesn't work at the deGrom level, though, b/c playoffs really favor guys like him over steady eddies

Bob

2:34

Mike Trout is just the best. I was thinking he was having a "down" year with the higher K rate but nope just the usual 177 WRC+

Ben Clemens

2:34

What a guy, right?

2:35

To be fair, he'd been having a down year until going nova in the last week, but yeah: Mike Trout is great and we don't talk about it enough anymore

He's a victim of his own success. He's been so good for so long that it feels expected, even though his skill continues to be otherworldly

Okay, I'm gonna quickly get some rice going in the rice cooker for lunch, brb

2:38

and back!

Insert Witty Name Here

2:38

Ooh look at Mr. Fancy with a rice cooker! Kidding of course, what’s been your favorite kitchen appliance lately? We got a bread machine and love it so much it may be in our Christmas family photo.

Ben Clemens

2:38

Oh yeah, that was a tailor-made transition.

2:39

I love a rice cooker, I think that'd be number one. I'm not a big kitchen appliance guy, to be honest: we have really nice knives and cutting boards and that's my number one splurge

Zachary

2:39

Aaron Judge is hitting .370/.507/.838 (1.345 OPS/268 wRC+) in his last 50 games. Who was the last guy you remember to put up a 50-game stretch like that?

Ben Clemens

2:39

Bryce Harper

tots

2:40

Mark McGwire's last year was Pujols' first. I feel like I need to take an old man walk.

Romorr

2:40

Conforto to the Orioles makes a lot of sense? Santander to DH, or he could replace an up and down Hays in LF. Or would you prefer someone who played in 2022.

Ben Clemens

2:41

It makes sense to me, it's just going to depend heavily on what teams see in workouts or medical checks or whatnot. I am a big Santander fan, but yeah, maybe he's better as a most-of-the-time DH

Didace

2:41

"WAR does a pretty good job of this" What would you rather have? A pitcher that puts up 5WAR in half a season, but will miss the other half randomly and if it's at the end no playoffs and the replacement is 1WAR for a full season? Or two 3WAR guys who are available 100%?

Ben Clemens

2:42

Right - I think the answer there is nuanced and depends on your team makeup, how you'd feel about the playoffs with the two guys, who that laster roster spot gets taken up by in guy 1's case, etc.

So when it's close like that, you consider all the contextual things

If it's one guy producing 7 WAR or two producing 2 apiece, hey, WAR works great

Brian

2:42

Did you see that Showalter said that the 3 relievers he has trusted most in his managerial career are: 1. Givens 2. Hunter 3. Mariano

Ben Clemens

2:42

I sure didn't, and that is indeed amazing

Zack Britton in shambles

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