JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/13/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/13/21

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everyone, and welcoem to the chat

Welcome, even

No time for a cutesy intro today, because I'd like to get to as many questions as possible, so let's just dive right in

CoryMC

2:00

Blue Jays; Fun or Super Fun?

Ben Clemens

2:01

Super fun! Not only are they scoring a trillion runs, but they're doing it with fun players. This is hardly a spoiler; I'm writing about the Jays' recent run (should go up soon), and wow they're hot

Justin P

2:01

If the A's miss the playoffs this year do they go into sell off mode and trade Chapman and Olson? Or will they try to keep them through arb and try for two more years?

Ben Clemens

2:01

I don't actually think that the playoff part of it matters too much.

2:02

I think that they will keep trying to make the playoffs over the next two years period, but if someone makes them an offer that bowls them over for either, they'll move them

That's been the A's MO for a while now; they're certainly interested in competing, but they're also willing to trade for the future.

Doug

2:03

How spooked would you feel about a 5 game series against the White Sox if you're the Astros? Rodon/Giolito/Lynn feels like it matches up really well against whatever 3 starters the Astros throw out there...

Ben Clemens

2:03

Not a team you'd love to face, obviously. The top-heavy rotation and bullpen is a pretty nice way to structure a playoff team

2:04

On the other hand, who are you HAPPY about playing here? Every playoff team in the AL is going to be good. I'd rather get the Sox than the Rays right now I think, or at least it's pretty close

Nate

2:04

Kolten Wong's wOBA since 2015 (the earliest year fangraphs has his xwOBA) is .322, but his xwOBA since then is only .296! That gap seems massive to me across 3000 PAs. Is Kolten Wong the luckiest player alive or has he mastered the art of hit it where they ain't?

Ben Clemens

2:04

That's the earliest year that xwOBA exists, so that checks out.

2:05

As to whether he's the luckiest man alive, I mean, no.

One thing that xwOBA definitely doesn't handle well is bunting, and Wong is one of the best bunters (for a hit) in the majors period

2:07

Those balls all have miniscule xBA's

Just as an example, Wong has 73 pitches flagged as 'is bunt' on Baseball Savant. He has a .423 wOBA on those and a .100 xwOBA

Not sure I trust the xwOBA there, b/c how could it be accurate?

2:08

My broader point is, 'his wOBA is higher than his xwOBA therefore he's lucky' is too broad of a brush given how xwOBA works

barney gumble

2:08

the yankees have finally moved gleyber torres back to 2B (what took so long?). but they're moving Lemahieu to 3B and Urshela to SS to accommodate. won't that make the overall infield defense worse? you'll have 2 players out of position instead of 1

also RE gleyber torres: at what point do the yankees move on from him entirely? he's looked awful for a while now.

Ben Clemens

2:09

Really good question. I have basically no idea how Urshela will play at shortstop, but if they think he's a better shortstop than Gleyber, I'd make the move

"players out of position" is a good first cut, but shortstop is just more important than the rest. If you're getting a big boost there, the whole thing will probably work out

Tal

2:09

Do you see Stearns as a legitimate possiblity for NYM?

Ben Clemens

2:09

No

2:10

Just doesn't fit his MO, at least the way I see it

Dave

2:10

Do rebuilding teams significantly exceeding expectations too early (like the Mariners this year 11 games better than their run differential would indicate) put their front offices in a tough position? All of a sudden there's external pressure from fans, media, etc expecting the team to improve on a somewhat fluky good season. Could force teams to pivot off longer term plans for more short term plans to avoid the external disappointment in an apparent step backwards on the path towards sustained competitiveness.

Ben Clemens

2:12

Not in any sustainably bad way, and the gains from your team being better than expected are meaningful too

I think if you ask any front office member, they'd prefer their team outperforming

2:13

I don't think that external pressure is particularly important compared to winning, getting more excitement, more money, etc

Andy

2:14

Who are your picks for MVP/Cy Young/ROY?

Ben Clemens

2:14

Speed round

2:15

NL: Harper/Burnes/India

AL: Ohtani/Cole/Randy

B. B. RODRIGUEZ

2:15

The Blue Jays have a wRC+ of 130 in the last 30 days. As a team. As a team. That is all.

Ben Clemens

2:16

Since August 27, the Blue Jays' team line has basically been Fernando Tatis's seasonal line

love

2

Joe

2:16

What are the Giants’ odds against the Dodgers in the NLDS of the Giants win the west? 55% favored?

Ben Clemens

2:16

Sadly not

The Dodgers will be favored

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