JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/13/21

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Ben Clemens

2:17

And I don' think it matters who wins the West (contingent on whichever team it is winning the WC game)

Like, the starting pitching matters a LITTLE

2:20

But the Dodgers are a much better team by the projections, and I think that's reasonable

Appa Yip Yip

2:20

Jumping off the Super Fun Jays, if you were writing a guide to bandwagoning 2021 edition, would you place any teams higher?

Ben Clemens

2:20

I'd have the Jays and Rays top of the list, then the Giants and Brewers in the next tier down

2:21

But I would also be fine with you skipping over the Rays on that list, because they're fun to root for from a team-building perspective but not so fun from a 'does ownership spend money on winning' side

2:22

Sorry friends, a moment while I deal with some publishing-related stuff

2:25

We're back!

2:26

With a Jays soaring article now published

Moose_Bolton

2:26

Do players give hints that they are about to go into a slump? Do you think you could look back at the at-bats before a players slump and point to when it started? Or warning signs that one might be coming?

Ben Clemens

2:27

They definitely might, but it's not really a thing that you can do ex ante

It's a lot easier to look back and find signs, but finding signs that a player will go into a slump before they slump doesn't really work whenever I've tried to do it

2:28

That's not to say there aren't warning signs, just that I've never been able to find signs that are reliable

As the famous saying goes, the stock market has predicted 8 of the last 5 recessions

Graham

2:28

Can anything derail Ohtani's MVP? Vlad is obviously having a great September, but I assume he just doesn't have enough time to make up for the two-way greatness

Ben Clemens

2:28

Nah, I think that one is set in stone

Appa Yip Yip

2:29

Which wild card contenders do you think would make the deepest post-season run AL/NL?

Ben Clemens

2:29

Dodgers :)

Derek

2:29

Is this Yankees season the streakiest of all time? Seems hard to have much hotter or colder stretches than they've had, let alone in the same season!

Ben Clemens

2:30

Sounds like a fun article to write if I could think of a way to categorize it

It sure does feel that way

2:31

They're always on a 20-game winning streak it seems

or 25-game losing streak

2:31

If you were the Phillies and mired in mediocrity and not close to seriously contending while also having a bad farm system, would you consider trading Harper and Wheeler (since they’ll never have more value than they have now) and doing a rebuild/retool? It’s hard to see the Phillies being successful anytime soon, so it seems they’ll just be wasting Harper and Wheeler.

Ben Clemens

2:31

I would not

Those are the only reasons to watch the team!

2:32

I don't think that spectacularly botching a rebuild to the point where few of the players you stockpiled pans out

Means you should try to embark on another rebuild fueled by your savvy free agent signings

5 Run Homer

2:33

What do you think Semien and Ray command in the offseason? They've both been integral to the Blue Jays' success, and it would be a tough pill to swallow if they both were to leave

Ben Clemens

2:34

I've been wondering about both of these. Ray to me seems like a candidate for a Wheeler-esque deal

Kind of similar in that they've shown flashes of dominance but haven't really put together anything sustained (until this year for Ray)

2:35

Ray's issues are perhaps scarier -- that kind of control is always dicey -- but he might win a Cy Young this year. He's clearly the real deal at the moment

Not as good as Wheeler is today, obviously: but Wheeler would get a much bigger dela if he signed today

I borderline wanted him on our Trade Value list and now I'm very sad I missed out on putting him on it

2:36

Ray isn't that good, and he was bad just last year, but teams would be very interested in getting a pitcher with his age, stuff, and health (he's been surprisingly healthy) on a four/five year dela

brad penny for your thoughts

2:36

do you think Stl is "talking about the fences" 'cause it might make nolan happier to stay?

Ben Clemens

2:37

No. Zero chance of him opting out, he'd be talking about a sizeable pay cut to do so and all he does is talk about how much he loves St. Louis

2:37

Would you shut Burnes down for the regular season today? Same question for Woodruff? Or too fearful of the ever-dreaded rust?

Ben Clemens

2:37

I would not, b/c that's just boring and lame

But also b/c rust does seem like a real thing