JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/14/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/14/26

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oaktownblues

2:33

A couple weeks ago I noticed that the SHP park factor had been adjusted to consider the stadium more hitter friendly - all A's hitters 2025-2026 lost 5-6 points of wRC+ overnight (with commensurate changes in the opposite direction for the pitchers). For any individual player, that doesn't feel like a huge change, but in the aggregate, it feels significant that the A's whole offense was 5-6% worse than we thought (and the pitchers 5-6% better). Did this affect your view of the team at all? Like maybe the pitching situation isn't quite as dire, while the position player core isn't as solid?

Ben Clemens

2:34

I don't update these internal perceptions in my head every day or anything

but yeah, I have had a 'downgrade A's hitters/upgrade A's pitchers' and likewise 'upgrade M's hitters/downgrade M's pitchers' lean in constructing rankings

because i just didn't believe the park factors for either of thoes

2:35

I imagine we'll look into these in more depth this winter (again, we're trying to do LOTS of fun stuff when we have the time)

2:36

but yes, I think that it's reasonable to have adjustments like this, and I'm glad we do it. Especially for a place like SHP that's new to the majors somewhat recently, more data is always better. we're inherently conservative about park factors when we don't have much info

jtrichey

2:36

Let's say Ohtani and Freeman are healthy and DePaula rakes over these next 2 weeks. Who sits in the playoffs? Tucker-Teo platoon? DePaula already looks like one of their best 4 or 5 hitters.

Ben Clemens

2:36

I think De Paula would still sit, at least the majority of the time, but I guess I'd say that I'm not super confident in that view

2:37

and I think that Tucker would have to be the one who lost playing time to accomodate him, Teo is both more tenured with the team and white hot right now

wheelhouse

2:37

Cam Schlittler MVP campaign justifiable or no

Ben Clemens

2:38

it's definitely justifiable. I wouldn't vote for him. I'd vote for Yordan

bosoxforlife

2:38

I am completely puzzled by Toboni's moves at the deadline. He absolutely wrecked a great offense with his strange trades of Mead and Garcia, Jr. Since I am totally satisfied with Sogard as the 2027 Red Sox 2nd baseman they should offer Mead, Monasterio and Olds for Early.

Ben Clemens

2:39

I don't think it's fair to say that he wrecked the offense. particularly given that Mead has played one game since the deadline

2:40

Luis Garcia is still raking, no doubt

2:41

but they basically gave his job to Andres Chaparro, and he's been awesome

feels to me like a bigger part of what's ailing them is that CJ Abrams has a 32 wRC+ in the last month

which is gonna be tough to fix

2:42

Nas Nunez has a -36 wRC+ in the past month!

I am not sure I've seen one that low for a mostly everyday player

scottsjunk1981

2:42

the Nats gave luis garcia's job to ortiz, not chaparro, and he's been meh

Ben Clemens

2:43

I'd call it a split, since Chaparro is playing a lot more now than he was before the deadline, but fair

Ortiz has been meh

but like.... let's not act like those two guys were the thing holding the Nats offense together, nothing else has changed, and the lack of them made the offense bad

2:44

i mean, if Mead and Garcia had combined for an extra FIVE wins in the last 45 days

I think that is a LOT

then they'd still be seven games back of the third wild card

meanwhile Foster Griffin has a 6 ERA in Cleveland

2:45

shoiuld we give Toboni credit for getting that off the Nats' books? surely not

Petey Bienel

2:45

Does it make sense to send to the AFL pitchers who have some MLB experience but who have missed much of the season? I'm thinking specifically of Early and Herz for the Nats. As near as I can tell, there's no prohibition

Ben Clemens

2:45

Yeah, makes sense and 'rehabbers' is definitely part of the AFL contingent in genearl

2:46

this is probably more of a question for Eric but I would be interested in doing so if I were the Nats. Great way to get extra reps against good competition

particularly given that if you're the team, you should have at least a reasonable expectation that these guys might not get to work with your trainers and pitching coaches this winter

2:47

I think that for young players in particular, I'd be interested in front-loading some teaching moments

tdouglas

2:47

Do you think STL knows who they want to build around at catcher, or will they let it simmer for another 12 months to see how everyone grows?

Ben Clemens

2:47

yeah, I think your second conjecture is correct. I like a lot of their guys! I don't think it's gonna be Herrera, because I think he'll play first or DH longterm. But past that, I think they'll be happy to let it be a competition, more or less

kingharbaugh

2:47

Do you think there is a chance that the Mariners are projected for a bounce back next year? It just seems so strange that all their pieces fell apart at the same time. The pitching being so bad in the second half is perplexing, as is the bullpen's complete collapse. As a Mariners fan, it seems like a confluence of bad, low probability outcomes took them out this year. Am I just coping?

Ben Clemens

2:47

oh definitely

2:48

I can pretty much guarantee we'll project their pitchers and Cal for better outcomes than this year

because of how projections work

ajake57

2:48

These might be better questions for Tom Tango, but he's not in the chat! For statcast OAA, flyball catch rate is a pretty easy thing to understand. Distance and time to cover = catch %. But that's not granular enough for me because it's reducing a 3-dimensional ball flight to 2-dimensional coordinates. The tracking technology is sophisticated enough to give the full range of coordinates where a ball is catchable (probably at some height above the surface until it hits the ground). In an environment where we're gleaning every last scrap of data we can isn't that valuable information? I'm imagining this being a way to help quantify route efficiency but that might be another statistical leap or two. Following that thought, I don't really understand why groundballs for infielders aren't as easy to roll into an easy percentage. We have the batted ball information and the fielder's starting position, so why does that not translate into, "that was a 50/50 ground ball" the same way fly balls do?

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