JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/14/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/14/26

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Ben Clemens

2:48

so, as to the first thing, I'm imagining that it probably doesn't make much of a difference

2:49

like, sure, they could do that. but since it's probably pretty close to the same for fielders on average, it's gonna fall out in the wash

and individual-play catch/out probabilities are kind of nonsense anyway

sorry Tom

2:50

not really nonsense, but like.... if a statistic works in the aggregate, and it's made to be an aggregate statistic, cool. acting like it's exactly right on every single play, perfectly?

that's not really how modeling works

as for the second thing, my guess is that they DO have that 'this was a 50/50 grounder' internally

but because of my previous point about how this stuff is tricky to analyze and leads to counterintuitive readings on single plays that come out in the wash, they've looked at this data and decided that it's not worth publishing

InsertWittyNameHere

2:50

How funny was it that Zverev didn’t realize he won? Didn’t get to watch much this year but I did see the finals of the Boys Championship. If you didn’t see or read about it, highly recommend you do. At least the ending.

Ben Clemens

2:51

i missed the end of the match b/c of opening sunday of the NFL

I watched highlights of hte boys championship b/c someone else told me to

also I really enjoyed the women's final, I had somehow not watched enough of Rybakina this year before this tourney but with no Sinner around to watch, she feels like the next best thing

2:52

enjoyable, and I'm a big flat-affect guy myself so seeing champions not celebrate too much tickles me

mr. burrito

2:52

Re De Paula... I love the guy, but he's had 11 ABs in MLB. So it might be a tad early to consider who he'll replace in the post season. That said, there's a bigger issue here: De Paula's HR Sunday was off a 95 mph fastball. Dunno how many Dodgers have done that this year. Muncy still hit heat, but even Ohtani (probably because of injury) can't hit a fastball this year. Is this team age or fluke?

Ben Clemens

2:52

haha yes, implied but unsaid in my answer

as to the fastball thing, let's do an in-chat query for fun

2:53

Dodgers hitters, vs 95+ velo, 2026, run value, barrel/bip, hard hit rate, whiff rate

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfGT=R%7C&hfSea=2026%7C...

2:54

that's the query, and let's see. Muncy is tattooing fast pitches. Will Smith is too (when healthy). Ohtani's not that bad

for context: league average barrel/bbe vs 95+ is 7.7%

kinda makes sense to me

2:55

and league average whiff rate 22%

Smith is at 31% barrels/15% whiffs

Muncy 20% barrels/23% whiffs

Ohtani 14% barrels/26% whiffs

Mookie is at 8% barrels 6% whiffs, lol

2:56

I'd basically say that Freeman and Pages have had big power outages against fast pitches

but that overall, the Dodgers issues aren't so simple to diagnose as a single pitch type

didace

2:56

"why should playoff seeding be linked to division finish?" Winning a division needs to have a good reward because it's easier to sell teams to fans when they have a chance to benefit from it. We don't want a league where 30 teams are between 78 and 84 wins, but we need to keep all fan bases engaged as long as possible.

Ben Clemens

2:56

let's just say that I'd try to come up with OTHER things to incentivize teams and fans

2:57

yes, if you got rid of it and isntead replaced it with punching you in the stomach if you live in the midwest, this deal will not appeal

but let's imagine replacing it with a new incentive. I concur that you need incentives to try

Sanford

2:57

Every time I'm about to give up on Francisco Alvarez, I remember how young he still is (24). He's in his 5th year in the majors while guys like Adley, Raleigh, Baldwin and Rushing all *debuted* at this age.

The flip side of this coin is that we have such a large of sample of him being mid (or fluctuating between awesome, bad, and hurt).

Do you think he can make a leap or is this who he is? (And generally, I'm curious how you square age vs. performance sample when evaluating guys who debuted so young?)

Ben Clemens

2:57

buddy, you and me both

he's one of the players I'm least confident (and most variable) in evaluating

2:59

I think that generally speaking this is who he is but that I'm willing to accept him getting healthier, and I think that some of his badness has to do with health

war2d2

2:59

This may have changed since last I checked, but at sometime in the last five days the Cubs had both the most position-player fWAR and the least pitcher fWAR. They’re probably gonna get bumped in the first round, assuming they even make it, on Shota Imanaga being pushed one inning too long and giving up a go-ahead homer. I’ll go out on a limb and say it’ll be to Schwarber. Get your Kalshi™ prop bets in now.

Ben Clemens

2:59

minor rant that you invited with your Kalshi joke, and the TM was delightful btw

3:00

I hate this crap. And I'm a markets-oriented person, I do think of the world in probabilities and whatnot

but treating it as basically just gambling is a betrayal of the concept of prediction markets, to me, or at least the promise

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