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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/14/26

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Ben Clemens

3:15

but for me, that's just sunk cost. trading them now would be a PR move

bosoxforlife

3:15

One of the biggest surprises this year has been the startling hot streak that Rafael Devers has put together. I have been expecting a gradual decline followed by a precipitous one. It seems nearly impossible that he won't become an albatross contract around the Giants neck sooner rather than later.

Ben Clemens

3:16

yeah, he's been one of the best hitters in baseball this year, period - 14th among qualifiers in wRC+

and he had a 47 (!!) wRC+ in his first 31 games

3:17

3rd in wRC+ since May 1

and second in baseball in homers

3:18

I just think Devers is a nice first baseman and that he'll continue to play like htat, but what a funny way to get to basically his projection

sliderinthedirt

3:18

Do you have any idea why CJ Abrams keeps fading in the second half? He has a 58 wRC+ after the first 9 games (which were against the A’s, Nats and Dbacks)

Ben Clemens

3:18

no - and there are a number of guys like this with really strong 1h/2h splits that I really have no idea about

I'm not saying it's definitely statistical noise

or even that it's likely statistical noise

I do feel fine saying that we, from the outside, cannot distinguish between noise and process

maybe CJ can

maybe the Nats can

3:19

we'd need a lot more info than just the stats, though. if you do the math on the stats, the answer is just that things like this happen to people sometimes

which I understand is not helpful at all

fincampbell05

3:19

Would the Red Sox be a projected playoff team in 2027 if they let all pending free agents walk, signed zero free agents, and made zero trades? Yes, right?

Ben Clemens

3:20

let's see. that looks like:
-Sonny Gray
-Aroldis Chapman (nope, his vested, n/m)
-Patrick Sandoval
-IKF

so uh, yes? they just don't have much coming off the books

3:21

their cliff is more the year after that, when they have 8 contributors falling off the books

Greg Simons

3:21

I almost want a sub-.500 team to make the playoffs to drive home the point that 12 playoff teams is (more than) enough? Do you think 14 is inevitable in the new CBA?

Ben Clemens

3:21

i don't think it's inevitable, but I think it's a likely point of agreement between the two sides, when those are thin on the ground

3:22

it's good to remember that neither side is interested in the welfare of fans, any more so than they are interested in the fans putting more money into the baseball machine

I think it's pretty clear that 14 team playoffs are kinda silly

but i mean, they probably put more money into the machien

booneyO

3:22

It’s pretty impressive how the Padres have stayed competitive despite all of the win now moves they’ve made in years prior and the amount of money tied up in aging stars who aren’t performing. All of King, Pivetta, Ray, and Mize are or may walk next year. Can they continue to make this work?

Ben Clemens

3:22

yeah, it really is impressive

AJ Preller is clearly very good at some aspects of GM'ing that you miss if you just look at the process

3:23

because yeah the process feels like it can't possibly keep working given the amount of prospects they've sent out

and yeah, the money tied up in aging stars

and yet

I think that they cannot continue to make this work

full disclosure, that was my prediction for this year

3:24

but it's just a VERY thin eye of the needle to thread

InsertWittyNameHere

3:24

Maybe an odd question, but what happens to the economy when a large chunk of it gets lost to gambling? I’m thinking of the 18-30 demographic, and if they lose even just 5% of their income to the bookies, that’s losing date money that could have gone to local establishments. Is this effect marginal or is it like a hidden problem that we’re only going to realize in a few more years?

Ben Clemens

3:24

hidden problem that we're only going to realize in a few years

3:25

but the good news is that in the long run, I think the odds of AI either a)killing us all or b)sufficiently changing productivity so that scarcity is meaningfully lower and we all have better lives is pretty high

so even though gambling is causing a ton of ills around bankruptcy and such, and that it's definitely doing some damage to people who don't have marginal income to lose, it's just gonna come out in the wash of bigger changes

I hope I'm right, at least

also, we've gotten far enough from baseball that I am now pleased with how the chat has gone

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