JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/14/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/14/26

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Ben Clemens

3:00

this is just sports betting with extra steps

whatever, baseball is clearly cool with it (although they shacked up with Polymarket, definitely don't google Polymarket controversies if you want to feel okay about this)

3:01

but yes, the Cubs are fascinating in a 'wait how did it end up like htis' way

I'm more optimistic than you are, because basically I just don't have as long of a memory with pitchers

3:02

and I like Boyd/Holmes/Imanaga/Gausman as a top 4 even though they're not pitching well now and haven't much this season

the bullpen? less sold

meaningfully less sold

but I think that good hit/bad pitch teams always have a shot in the playoffs b/c you never know when someone's gonna go full Michael Wacha or whatever

Baseball Learner

3:02

I think it's absurd that there are only 3 decently good teams in the AL and they will all be on the same side of the bracket. If we have to do playoffs by league and division can't we at least reseed?

Ben Clemens

3:03

yep, agreed

mr. burrito

3:03

Thanks for that answer, re Dodgers. That's interesting and, as a fan, oddly encouraging. Has anybody (a team, perhaps) looked at how velo affects whiff rates, etc., based simply on a player's age? In other words, do we have data for how the average 34 year old MLB player fares against velo vs., say, the average 24 year old?

Ben Clemens

3:03

Haven't seen that study in particular, but Tom Tango has done some stuff with swing speed aging curves

bat speed predictably declines. surely that's correlated with performance against fast fastballs

scottsjunk1981

3:03

Re - developing actionable local vs global true talent projections - why do you think the economics around it would be different from any other aspect of baseball analytics - for example, pitch stuff modeling? I mean, I guess what I'm hearing is that a fully-formed, nearly-total solution would be such a leap beyond current table stakes that the incentives would keep it out of the public view, but that seems like it would have been true for almost all baseball insights at one point (and, fwiw, is also I think a bit too optimistic about what the first non-null result of this kind would look like).

Ben Clemens

3:04

basically because I think that the amount of noise in this is really high, relative to the other questions that are hitting the public side first

but who knows

I'm not gonna spend too much time on pondering it because i can tell you that I will not be the one developing it, though

war2d2

3:04

Yeah, I’m probably slightly pessimistic by nature, and I’ve watched like 100 Cubs games in whole or in part this season, so that’s playing into my prediction. Also: the existence of Caleb Theilbar contributes to that. And in case it wasn’t obvious from the ™, you and I are in agreement on “all this crap.”

Ben Clemens

3:04

100%

Domingo Ayala

3:04

Next year's breakouts... Is this list more Jordan Walker or Christopher Morel? Colson Montgomery
Cam Smith
Crews
Bolte
Heriberto Hernandez

Ben Clemens

3:05

I mean, I like Montgomery a lot, but obviously the past two months are not making me feel BETTER about that view

3:06

I think if I had to rank these guys I'd go....
Montgomery
Crews
Bolte
Hernandez
Smith

cool

1

3:07

my reasoning is:
-Montgomery is a shortstop with power, and I've liked him for quite a while, I can shade down my expectations based on recent results while maintianing my bias towards him succeeding
-Crews, the pedigree, man
-Bolte has enough carrying tools that I like his floor, and the ceiling is exciting though unlikely to be reached
-Hernandez looks like a nice corner outfield type
-no idea what's going on with Smith but this does not feel like a dip I want to buy

Domingo Ayala

3:07

Why low on Smith? Bat speed, no real ground ball problem, strikeout and walk rates are passable

Ben Clemens

3:08

i mean

I'm not saying he's unplayable

3:09

but if you believe he's getting a little unlucky, he's an average bat who plays a corner outfield pretty well

3:10

whereas if you believe his results are about right, he's a below average bat who plays a corner outfield pretty well

i'm not saying don't dream on the potential. but he's up to 1000 PA of swinging super hard and getting results that look roughly like this

cool

1

3:11

all five of those players have upside. If I had to pick I'd have him last

kriscolic

3:11

Has AJ shown enough to be penciled in as the opening day '27 starter, or should the Mets be looking to add a qualified depth piece over the winter just in case?

Ben Clemens

3:12

I think that they should either be looking to add a depth piece or at the very least think that htey have a plan for center if he does not pan out

not like I have strong reason to doubt him in particular

3:13

but it feels a little suboptimal to have one plan for center, and to have it be a guy who I think it's fair to say has some hit tool questions

surely it's at least a tiny bit worrisome that he's striking out so much given what his prospect profile looks like

Justin Krupp

3:13

Would you shop Logan Webb this offseason?

Ben Clemens

3:13

oof

3:14

I don't think I would, because people would be giving me dip buying offers

both because he's had a clunker of a year and because no one's looking to add salary into financial structure uncertainty

3:15

I understand the idea behind it, which is like, these Giants kinda stink and they should be pivoting to a youth movement with the much improved farm, but it'll be too hard to trade the three hitters on big contracts

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