JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/15/25

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/15/25

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Ben Clemens

2:35

I'm down on him, but the numbers are pretty good and voters love average

Lock him up

2:35

I wouldn't be upset if Stearns decides to move on from Alonso if he has a good contingency plan, but do you think McLean gets an extension?

Ben Clemens

2:35

okay, this is WILD to me

Pete Alonso is one of the best Mets of the 21st century

Cohen's money isn't yours

you don't want to root for Pete?

and like, McLean probably isn't signing an extension this offseason

2:36

I'm sure they'll try but there are few comps for a pitcher signing one this early when they've been as good as him

like, the Strider deal maybe?

but tehre's not a lot of it, and Strider was kind of a weird case

2131, 1312

2:36

Cedric Mullins gets a guaranteed offer this offseason? I know the CF market is shallow this year, but man, he has not been at his best

Ben Clemens

2:37

I mean, I think he will. platoon CF kinda deal. if he's intent on being a full-time starter that might be trickier, but I'm not expecting that

doughboy

2:37

Aside from Skubal, the Tigers seem to be a sum of their parts team. While this has never seemed like a sustainable successful team construction, they have the second best record in the AL. They have played just under .500 baseball since July 1st. What do we make of all this as they head into the playoffs? And even the Central isn't the slam dunk it was looking to be.

Ben Clemens

2:37

I'm sorry, but they're 6.5 up on Cleveland with 12 to play. If they don't win the Central, this will be one of the worst collapses of all time

2:38

as to what ato make of them? I think I tend to agree with our odds, which basically never bought that they were the best team in teh AL, but also don't buy that they're below .500 true talent

you can't know who will get hot, who will have the worst week of their life at the wrong time, who will click with a new approach

2:39

but a good bet is that they'll make the DS with a bye, and then be an underdog against whoever they face

The M’s only win when I’m abroad

2:39

I’m not convinced that Judge is the obvious MVP choice. The fWAR differential is close to within WAR’s error bars (bWAR would be too if framing were factored in).

Ben Clemens

2:39

I mean.... sure

but, you're not a voter, at least I assume not

and Aaron Judge is only 6 homers behind despite 40 fewer PA, and he's hitting WAY better than Raleigh

2:40

now, if Raleigh goes nuts and hits 62, sure

but if the season ended today? Judge wouldn't be unanimous but the odds aren't 1:10 in his favor at betting sites on accident

Nick

2:40

Reds, Giants, Mets; Mariners, Angels, Rangers: Who makes the post-season?

Ben Clemens

2:40

Mets, M's, Astros

2:41

who I assume you meant instead of Angels

Pinstriped Power

2:41

I love judge, but if Raleigh gets 60 how does he not get it

Ben Clemens

2:42

yeah, maybe I should have said 60 instead of 62. I have a little 'chase for 62' script ready for if he heats up

2:43

so my head went to 62

Nancy's Friend Sluggo

2:43

Do you think some MVP voters will go for Raleigh over Judge because catcher is just a much tougher position? Is that valid reasoning?

Ben Clemens

2:43

Do I think some will? Sure. Is it valid? I mean.... WAR does give him more credit for it, but I don't think you need to just vote via WAR

2:44

I don't think that I would do that

but I wouldn't say 'well that's irrational'

SPArn

2:44

A take: The ghost runner rule has ruined the walk off home run. Pat Bailey's grand slam felt anti climactic

Ben Clemens

2:44

I don't think I agree with this take, but it does sound interesting to check data-wise

like, is the average walkoff hit in lower leverage now?

2:45

personally, I was watching that game with my mom, stepdad, and wife, and all of us went nuts when he hit the homer and flipped the bat

Appa Yip Yip

2:45

Next JT realmuto this, second coming of Johnny bench that. When will the people be clamoring for the next Alejandro Kirk?

Ben Clemens

2:45

I am

why do you think I like Moises Ballesteros so much!

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