JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/15/25

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/15/25

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Ben Clemens

2:45

I'm so in the tank for Kirk

my only solace is that I've been right

Sean

2:45

Nice run by the M's... especially the offense. Which of the 3 AL West teams wins the West?

Ben Clemens

2:46

I'll stick with the M's

I'm just being consistent, I've been picking them a lot when people asked me this

and eh, it's a crapshoot, but I think the M's have the best chance

SPArn

2:46

Do you have a Daylen Lile take just yet? The professional hitter spirit of Howie Kendrick lives on in Washington!

Ben Clemens

2:47

I want to see more, but I'm kind of in, the statcast stuff is better than I would have expected

you know, you see the batting line that looks like it's dependent on avoiding K's and BABIP and go eh, I dunno, most players aren't capable of doing that in the majors

2:48

but no, that's not really his game, his stats just happen to look like that

Lotta doubles, not exclusively dependent on keeping SwStr% down

Kendrick is a fun comp, largely because I love Howie Kendrick

The Windy Citi

2:48

Somewhat misc. but I saw the wind question from earlier and was reminded of a recent Adam Ottavino (yes the pitcher) video where he analyzed exactly how the wind in Citi Field has affected pitch movement during some specific games.

Ben Clemens

2:48

this is really cool

2:49

(I've actually seen this before, I didn't just watch it right now)

60

2:49

I mean if Judge goes full Judge he could have like 57.

Ben Clemens

2:49

also true. like, conditional on Cal going nuts and Judge not, yeah, gimme Cal

2:50

but that doesn't seem THAT likely, even if iid

2131, 1312

2:50

Be careful there ben, don't want to get automodded lol

Ben Clemens

2:50

oh god lol

good call

I'm in r/baseball and they have to call him 'Alejandro LastName'

laughing

1

johnny dANGER

2:51

how come we don't see as many Cuban defectors anymore?

Ben Clemens

2:52

I'd have to do a deeper dive to give you a super confident answer but basically, I think the talent has just left?

the cuban team hasn't been as good in international competition, many of the shooting stars defected young and therefore didn't ascend to stardom in Serie

Jason

2:52

What's Cade Horton's outlook next year? His stats this year are preposterous. I'm thinking sub 4 ERA again next year with maybe 8 K/9? hopefully can reach 170/180 innings

Ben Clemens

2:53

yeah I'm thinking more strikeouts, higher BABIP, more homers, but it adds up to a pretty good overall package

He Got Game (1998)

2:53

How sticky is fielding percentage? Obviously there are MUCH better ways to determine if someone is a good fielder, but is a season of innings enough to determine that someone is better at the easy plays? Asking because Trea Turner has picked up 9-10 outs this year from avoiding errors and I’m trying to convince myself his huge defensive jump isn’t just sample size flukiness

Ben Clemens

2:53

It's enough for me to revise my estimation up significantly. it's also enough for me to note it to maybe study during the offseason. stickiness of 80%-100% out probability plays, maybe?

Opifijikl

2:54

What's your favorite pitch ever? Why? ie Pedro changeup or Kershaw Curveball etc

Ben Clemens

2:54

oh, great question

okay Tommy Kahnle changeup is higher than it has any right to be

2:55

but: I like Framber's curve a ton, but probably my favorite is Michael Wacha's silly, looped-in curveball

because he still does it sometimes, and it's one of the first things that clued me in to how pitchers were able to use different pitches with different interesting aims

his changeup is better, obv, but that silly, awful, cruveball

i love it

Insert Witty Name Here

2:55

Still want your peanut sauce recipe, be interesting to see if there’s any difference

Ben Clemens

2:57

oh sure. it's kinda approximate, but I mix together creamy peanut butter, black vinegar, a splash of unseasoned rice vinegar, oil and spice (either just chili oil or handle both separately), a dash of brown sugar, and a dash of garlic

oh plus water to get the consistency right depending on what you want

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:57

I know Kershaw's curveball gets all the flowers (and deservedly so, it's filthy) but the slider is the pitch that made his career.

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