JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/20/21

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TomBruno23

2:31

Being that BFIB here...I agree on Molina and while I know/read lineup construction is not that important I do not understand why he bats 5th every time he plays. I mean I do understand why, but I do not.

Ben Clemens

2:32

I've got a running joke where I predict the Cards lineup and leave every spot blank except 5. C Yadier Molina

I should probably re-up it sometime soon, always enjoyable to see how Shildt just jams him 5th no matter what

Mike

2:32

For the person asking about 1/3 vs 1/10 of an IP, if not using excel, the universal process to convert between numerical bases (ie from base 10 to base 3 in this instance) is to multiply by the new and divide by the old: truncate (to .1 IP or .2 IP), multiply by new (3 or 6), divide by old (base 10 starts at 0, so the 10th number is 9), now you have the base 10 decimals (.3333333333 and .666666666)

This handy rule works for any base conversion, and is useful if you're saving to a database or the like for future retrieval.

TomBruno23

2:32

If you are a BFIB do you root for LA to win the WC b/c it might be easier to beat them in 1 game than 3 out of 5 compared to SF?

Ben Clemens

2:33

Definitely yes!

The only complicating factor is that the ace differential is large btw. Gausman and Scherzer/Buehler, but I totally agree

2:33

Luis Garcia has gotten next to no run in the AL ROY conversation despite the fact that he's been neck and neck for the WAR lead for months now. Is there a reason for this besides the identity of the team that he plays for?

Ben Clemens

2:34

That's a big reason why for sure. It also is a matter of quantity over quality to some extent -- it feels a bit weird to give an award to a mid-3s ERA pitcher with peripherals that suggest he should be.... a mid-3 ERA's pitcher

2:35

And it doesn't help that 1/3 of the players in baseball are named Luis Garcia (I think this is actually a factor that works against him, unfortunately)

Appa Yip Yip

2:35

Small ball is simultaneously more fun to watch but also less effective in terms of actually winning ball games. How does MLB square this circle?

Ben Clemens

2:36

I'd like to see them make the bases bigger, put in a pitch clock, limit pickoff throws, things like that would all make a marginal impact

But it's a realllllly tough problem to solve

Imagine if the most efficient play in football was to run for three yards

The game would look very different than it does now

Inaccessible Rail

2:37

How insane is it that Jacob deGrom is still tied for 6th in FG WAR for pitchers, even though he's pitched like half the innings of the other guys? And that's not even counting his batting WAR, which is 2nd-best among pitchers.

Ben Clemens

2:37

He's truly ridiculous

Matt Damon

2:37

Alex Avila

Guest

2:37

Hi Ben! Curious about your thoughts on DRC+ and DRA-. I recently read an article on BP asserting that DRC+ performed better than other all-in-one offensive metrics and I am wondering why it, along with DRA-, doesn't show up more in non-BP analysis.

Ben Clemens

2:37

Largely b/c it's proprietary and a bit of a black box

Yo-Yo

2:38

With Matt Carpenter + Andrew Miller + Dexter Fowler + Carlos Martinez dropping off of the books after this season, where do you anticipate STL upgrades? That's nearly $60 million. Arb raises and other contract hikes don't eat into that too much. With the emergence of Sosa, it seems like elite pitching would be the way to go, but STL doesn't pay for big arms. What do you think?

Ben Clemens

2:38

I think they'll sign one mid-tier free agent and then convince the fans that the real payroll upgrade is that htey actually are paying for Arenado now

2:39

STL has been in the trade and extend game rather than the go after free agents game for quite a while now, and I don't see a lot that suggests they're suddenly going to change course

CoryMC

2:39

The "luck" side for the Blue Jays was having a terrible close-game record and now that is normalizing to around .500. They had a bad bullpen for most of the season which contributed to that too. They probably topped out at having a decent lead for the WC1 spot instead of being part of the tight battle.

Ben Clemens

2:39

This is a good way to look at it too. I'm not saying the Jays haven't been unlucky

2:40

They definitely have, but not by enough that they "should" be neck and neck with TB

TomBruno23

2:40

Reminder to all that milb.tv is free rest of the season. So many games every night.

Ben Clemens

2:40

I did not know this but that's awesome!!

Mike

2:40

I think that even given BP's stats being proprietary and black-box, if they were easier to search and pull splits and comparisons from (like FG's leaderboards), they'd get used dramatically more often.

Ben Clemens

2:40

THe FG leaderboards and stats are truly miraculous

I'm not saying this b/c I work here

2:41

I think I use our leaderboards LESS now than I did before (b/c we have stuff in a sql database)

I used them so much beforehand that I got an ad-free membership to speed up loading times

dadfd

2:41

Why do you hate my favorite team?

Ben Clemens

2:41

It's because of that one player who you think is good but I think is overrated

Also I think their manager is a hack

Sam

2:41

Yanks and Red Sox are walking a razor thin line going into what's shaping up to be one of the craziest grudge matches of the season this week. Who takes the series?

Ben Clemens

2:42

Gimme the Sox. It's a tossup, but I find the Sox story this year to be more fun (particularly if they make the playoffs), while the Yankees are less fun (but their story would be more fun to me if they missed)

Mr. Redlegs

2:42

As a Reds fan I can't decide if I'm more bummed about the Reds terrible collapse or the fact that it let the Cardinals into the playoffs.

Ben Clemens

2:42

My Reds fan friends are evenly split on this

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