JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/20/21

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matty

2:43

what did you do before working at FG?

Ben Clemens

2:43

I was an interest rates portfolio manager at a large hedge fund, and before that an interest rates swap trader at a bank

Murray

2:43

Mariners fan here. What should I consider to be a successful last two weeks for my team?

Ben Clemens

2:43

I mean, the most successful last two weeks would be an improbable playoff run

2:44

If we're ruling that out? Toro continues to mash, Gilbert and Kikuchi look good, and one or two hitters do something new and exciting

Guest

2:44

Fielding percentage : Outs Above Average :: OPS : wRC+ agree?

Ben Clemens

2:45

I'd maybe say FP:OAA::batting average:wRC+

FP misses a bit more than OPS does, but yeah, I think you're on the right track

2:45

before yesterdays preformance was Cole your AL CY?

Ben Clemens

2:45

He was! It was realllly close, though, I thought the race was basically a tossup

And that was quite the clunker

Sandy Alcantara

2:46

Will I finish 2022 season with Cy Young votes?

Ben Clemens

2:46

I"m gonna say yes

He's a player I regret leaving off the trade value series. We had several discussions about whether he should be on there if Pablo Lopez was, and I think we got that wrong

Richie

2:46

'Big market' in baseball terms means 'Big baseball market'. Generations mean a lot there. Your typical Bostonian has significantly more emotional connection to the Red Sox than does your typical Houstonian to the Astros. (never mind those Johnnie-Come-Lately Rangers!)

Ben Clemens

2:47

Yeah, this is a good way of looking at it I think? Texas teams definitely don't benefit from how big football is there

Sandy Alcantara

2:47

Don't think anyone was expecting Pablo to miss the 2H. I can forgive you.

Ben Clemens

2:47

He went on the IL after we had written him up

And the severity was unknown

Ehhhh.... wish we'd hedged, let's just say

Dan

2:48

Biggest change in the new CBA: free agency time reduced, increased revenue sharing, more "time of game" regs? Your guess?

Ben Clemens

2:48

Free agency time reduced is my best guess

2:50

RE: Garcia, I'm a bit confused about the quality over quantity comment. It would apply if the race were between him and Wander, but everything I've seen so far indicates that the race is between Adolis and Arozarena, both of whom are going to end up with ~600 PAs. If anything, that argument should work in Luis's favor, since he's only going to end up with ~155 IPs

Ben Clemens

2:51

I would vote for Garcia over... Garcia

Over Adolis Garcia, that's confusing

I think that Arozarena comes closer to being quality over quantity than the others, just b/c he's largely held down by defensive metrics and I'd take a 120 wrC+ bat over an 80 ERA- pitcher

2:52

But maybe I'm wrong about that, and just don't have my ERA's calibrated right

Morbo

2:52

Ben, I was thinking about your article on the Blue Jays playoff odds last week. Specifically the discussion about whether or not they were wrong. And while for the most part I agree with you analysis. I do have a quibble. Specifically with the assertion that they weren't wrong per se. If I understood your argument correctly you essentially made some adjustments to each teams win probability and then treated each game as independent for anything other game. But we know that that is not true cannot infact can't be true. And I'm not talking about if two teams play each other. I mean that they aren't independent because for example if you use all the pitcher in your bullpen in one game they may not be available in the next. Or if you blow out a team early you can sit back and rely on low leverage relievers and rest others. Same arguments but to a lesser degree with hitters also apply

Ben Clemens

2:53

Yeah, this is definitely a potential issue with any kind of game-by-game prediction -- they're certainly not truly independent.

They do seem to come out in the wash over hte long run, and I'm going to do a bit of an audit of our odds over the offseason (how often have teams with x% chances on y-ish date actually made the playoffs)

But this is definitely a possible weakness of the whole thing

Morbo

2:54

I'm not sure how you correct for it though

Ben Clemens

2:55

Right, I think that this is a big reason we mostly just ignore those contingent facdtors

They can affect both teams, and they're hard to model ex ante

Appa Yip Yip

2:55

Sox/Yanks is going to be brutal but I think WC2 is going to come down to Yanks/Jays

Ben Clemens