JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/22/25

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/22/25

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Ben Clemens

2:12

I don't really agree with 'substantially' but I definitely see where our odds are coming from

2:13

We've liekd the Mariners all year, and thanks to the various additions they've made we think they're one of the better teams in baseball

2:14

they also have a bye, and the only other team we see as being a)great b)having a bye is the Phillies

but the Phillies have the Dodgers in their way right away in a lot of outcomes, which sucks

so like.... I get what our odds are doing, the Dodgers not having a bye in the NL is knocking the top end of teh NL down

Bosoxforlife

2:14

The Red Sox still have too many outfielders but the reason Nate Eaton is playing is because he is absolutely doing the job.

Ben Clemens

2:14

yeah

when the rubber hits the road, you just have to play the guys who do well, and Eaton fits that category

2:15

The top Sox hitters in September are hilarious, by the way: Eaton, Trevor Story, Rob Refsnyder, Romy Gonzalez, then a huge gap of 30 points of wRC+ before we get to Jarren Duran

2:16

bottom 4 with meaningful PT? Rafaela, Narvaez, Bregman, Yoshida

Bustin Aarnes

2:16

What does it say about how the dodgers view Rushing if he was immediately usurped by some guy they traded for as an afterthought?

Ben Clemens

2:16

it says exactly what you said there

NYYEnjoyer

2:16

Insane offseason idea: The A's should trade Leo De Vries+ to the Twins for Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez. Would instantly be the AL West favorites.

Ben Clemens

2:16

I mean.... I would not make them AL West favorites after that trade, lol

2:17

and I think my argument - they just finished 15 games behind the Mariners and added two players - would be solid

not that I wouldn't be looking to upgrade pitching if I were teh A's, but I think that for a team that has made it incredibly clear that spending to retain players is not really an option, splurging for a quick fix is probably not what you want to be doing

Pat

2:18

IF the Tigers don't make it to the playoffs (from best record in baseball on 7/8 to missing out), what is the cause? Certainly were playing over their heads, but, not THAT much, right? Feels like the lack of moves for a hitter/SP at the deadline are going to cause a lot of discussion/offseason heartburn for Scott Harris & Co.

peanut-gallery

1

Ben Clemens

2:18

So, 'what is the cause' is one of those unanswerable questions, but I feel like that's especially the case here

they even traded for a pitcher, it jsut didn't work

2:19

I think that it would have been reasonable to look at the offense and say that it probably couldn't keep performing this well

2:20

but it was a weak year for acquiring offense, so I don't know.... Naylor and Suarez? it's not like they have obvious places to play on this team, Tork has been good, and I think they'd have trouble benching McKinstry even though he's been only so so in the second half

sometimes you just draw the short end of the stick

OsAreFun

2:21

Javier Baez was an AS but look at him after the break

Ben Clemens

2:21

Right, you could replace him? and then slide McKinstry to short? I don't know, that doesn't sound amazing to me

2:22

Suarez has cooled way off, too, just as you'd probably expect

I guess the point is that these would have felt like marginal upgrades

I think that amybe they could have gottne more depth, but I don't hate what they did, and think that they've just gotten a bit unlucky

Justin

2:22

Dodgers world series odds at 15% despite not having a first round bye seems very high to me. Am I off-base on that?

Ben Clemens

2:22

It just depends how favored you think the Dodgers are in a three-game series, basically

2:23

we think they're overwhelming favorites. You could slide that down if you'd like, and honestly, our model back tests fairly well but I'm always skeptical of saying we can't do it better

i'd probably slide them down - but they're the obvious standout favorites if they win their first round, so

OsAreFun

2:23

Dodgers Bullpen looks weak but they will probably move a few starters in there right?

Ben Clemens

2:23

yeah 100%. Maybe even shohei?!!?

O'sAreFun

2:23

A's have 3 young players who are looking good, they need to build a pitching staff to supplement that

Ben Clemens

2:23

concur

so I'd like to make incremental moves rather than go for it

Darren

2:23

Is it fair to call the Mets the 'unluckiest' team in at least the NL? -8 from the BaseRuns record and ~11 WAR or potential value lost to injury (esp pitching). Roster isn't far from top WS contender terriroty

Ben Clemens

2:24

sure, if you'd like, but not including hte Braves in that seems a bit weird to me, they've felt snakebitten

Dodgers too

I think trying to define unluckiest is just hard

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