JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

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NYYEnjoyer

2:24

Am I wrong for thinking the Yankees/Mariners/Phillies/Dodgers are far and away the best teams in the bracket and it'd be pretty shocking if the WS wasn't a combination of two of them

Ben Clemens

2:24

So, I agree with teh first half of what you said

but I don't agree with the second half

2:25

two of these teams are going to play three-game series where the loser is out

three baseball games!

jenmarz

2:25

Worst team you think should feel like they have a realistic chance at making the WS?

Ben Clemens

2:25

I guess the Reds b/c they're the worst team with a playoff shot in my eyes

Victoria

2:25

The Reds playing Pittsburgh and Milwaukee feels like such an edge over the Mets playing the Cubs and Fish

Ben Clemens

2:25

playing in the NLC is nice, but of course, with the more balanced schedule there's not a huge difference over all 162

2:26

it's an edge, but the Mets just had three against the Nats

jenmarz

2:26

Historically, being "hot" or "cold" in September doesn't seem to have a ton of bearing on postseason success. Which "cold" team would you pick, out of all of them, to make it to the WS?

Ben Clemens

2:26

the Mets because it would be funniest

Lowe Distribution System

2:26

If you'd told me at the beginning of the season that Jackson Holliday would lead the Orioles in HR I'd have said that the Orioles must be awesome. Alas how wrong I would be

Ben Clemens

2:26

right??

he didn't lead the way you want him to (breakout) but the scary way (everyone else regresses)

2:31

sorry, had to run and get a delivery, let's restart

Hopeless jays fan

2:31

Likewise with the yanks, they don't look like they'll get the bye and are still heavily favoured. Do you think these odds are valid

Ben Clemens

2:31

I mean, we've done a lot of backtesting. I'm not sure what you mean by valid, but they do a fairly good job

I think that it's possible we oversell talent, but I don't think it's by a ton

Spherical Appreciation

2:31

Thanks for doing these all season! What was your favorite Dead song you heard at GD60?

Ben Clemens

2:32

Oh, Truckin', because I wasn't expecting it

and when it came in, the place went relatively nuts

Bosoxforlife

2:32

I am beginning to think that Josh Naylor, in some strange way, is in the conversation for the most underrated player in the game today.

Ben Clemens

2:32

yeah at the very least, player you'd love having on your team but maybe don't know you'd love having on your team

if you see Naylor plya, you're like ooh that's so fun!

Sad Fan

2:33

For the 2nd straight year arizona will be one of the best teams not to make the playoffs. Besides escaping the NL West, what do they need to do?

Ben Clemens

2:33

Have the season play out a little better. I didn't hate their decision to sell, but like.... reverse the halves, and they're buying not sellnig

and then almost certainly making the plyaoffs

path dependency is a jerk

Oaktown Blues

2:33

"Hey FanGraphs man who just wrote two articles confirming that FG playoff odds do a good job. These odds seem pretty wrong, huh?"

Ben Clemens

2:34

Haha look, I'm still gonna answer the questions. But yeah, I spend a lot of time testing our odds because I too get kind of skeptical of them. And I think that our playoff odds could be better if we used a more granular model, like Dan's ZiPS game-by-game odds

2:35

basically we have an abstracted model that considers total team strength, whereas dan looks at the individual pitchers projected per game

ours is great to run every five minutes all season long, and we use his for an enhanced look at playoff matchups

TigersFan1

2:35

Do you think the Tigers's collapse is due to their questionable deadline moves?

Ben Clemens

2:35

definitely not

i think that maybe their deadline moves could have cushioned them more

but eh, I didn't think they had a particularly poor deadline. They just ran out of gas too soon

2:36

and also maybe they'll just win the world series anyway

baseball's weird

Justin

2:36

As a a guy who asked a question about playoff odds, I would like to say I really support and appreciate the fangraphs odds and also thank you for answering my question

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