JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/22/25

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/22/25

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Ben Clemens

3:05

that's just how it works

3:06

I think that no one gets unadulterated joy, but that the really hard part about sports is trying to find a lot of joy in it anyway

the good news is, to quote jay-z quoting probably everyone else in history, joy wouldn't feel so good if it wasn't for pain

or alternately, 'a rainbow, then the clouds come out, we do it again'

Carl

3:06

Thanks for the answer regarding what projections miss about the Brewers. But the writers/pundits would know what the weaknesses of the projections are, and should be able to adjust for that (i.e not regress defense/baserunning as much, for example), yet they don't. So I feel there is more to it than just the aspect of projections. Because, if anything, my impression is that the projections are generally higher on the Brewers than the predictions are.

Ben Clemens

3:06

yeah, now that I can't explain

3:07

I'm with you in general

I think maybe the centrals are both under-represented in forecasts

and that people misunderstand lower projections vs. the fact that variance is still high

Bosoxforlife

3:07

Early. Tolle and Harrison vs. McLean, Tong and Sproat. Who ya' got?

Ben Clemens

3:08

so, I have it like: McLean, Tolle, Tong, Sproat, Harrison

I'm just down on Harrison, I don't know, I watched him a ton here and maybe the Red Sox will fix him but they're gonna have to convince me

LB

3:08

50 Cent on that "joy wouldn't be . . ." quote (from "Many Men")

Ben Clemens

3:08

there you go. it's also jay-z from 'guns n roses' and I'm not sure which was earlier

TigersFan1

3:09

Do you think PCA in the first or second half is who he really is? I think he is a good hitter, but not as good as he was in the first half. If he gets back to his first half form, he is the best 5-tool player and the third best player in baseball.

Ben Clemens

3:09

so as I mentioned when I was doing trade value, I knocked PCA's forecasts down more than any other player

so I guess I'm more like second half. I don't htink he's this bad, either, but the first half production was clearly not sustainable

didace

3:10

Writers predictions - Writers, like many coaches, value talent. The problem is that they see talent as "hit ball hard" and "throw ball fast". Now, those certainly are talents, but they aren't everything.

Ben Clemens

3:10

yeah, this is believable too

anyway, I don't know, projections and predictions tend to fade the centrals in general and the Brewers and Guardians in particular

Steven

3:11

How will analysts change the value of pitch framing once the ball/strike challenges come in? I assume there will still be some value, but to the point of usefulness?

The M’s only win when I’m abroad

3:11

With an ABS challenge system, do you expect some hitters will get green and red lights to challenge based on their ability to tell balls vs. strikes? Separately, does FG have any plans for measuring challenge “skill” similar to framing?

Ben Clemens

3:11

alright, let's answer these balls and strikes questions before calling it a day

so, we'll still measure framing the same, I think. And just exclude any pitches where there was a review? because on those pitches, there's no skill at framing to be measured

3:12

they're just a strike or not regardless

and I mean, absolutely we'll measure who's best and worst at it

I really want to know

and now, a lightning round before leaving

Scott M

3:12

The FG chats are a good mental-health break for me every week. I always look forward to them, and appreciate all of you who do this. Thanks for being here; thanks for being you.

Ben Clemens

3:12

why thank you very much; I hope that everyone enjoys these and gets at least a little out of it

First Base Free Agents

3:12

Any ballpark predictions for the contract results of guys like Alonso, Naylor, Flores, Santana, Goldschmidt, O'Hearn, Arraez? Alonso reunion with NYM still looks likely but the actual contract value feels up in the air and there's just so much variance here with a lot of buy-lows (and Santana might just retire)

Ben Clemens

3:13

I'm working on my projections, but not that much because we don't publish them until right after the world series

I think that it probably goes Alonso/Naylor/Arraez/O'Hearn in terms of how much teams are interested in each, but I haven't really finalzied my thoughts there yet at all

Insert Witty Name Here

3:13

Where the hell do you get black vinegar? Wanted to try your peanut sauce recipe out, but if Whole Foods didn’t have it (or I missed it?)

Ben Clemens

3:13

oh man, it's a pain!

i go to 99 Ranch or another asian market, or I order it online on Weee

3:14

it's SUCH a good flavor, very frustrating how hard it is to find

it's alternately called chinkiang vinegar in some places, if that helps

Bosoxforlife

3:14

How many challenges do you think each team will have?

Ben Clemens

3:14

3?

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