JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/22/25

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/22/25

powered by

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Ben Clemens

2:57

but it's about CF too, and I htink that they're probably going to be trying to address both this offseason

the O's, yeah, we knew that their pitching had to be amazing to have a chance, and it wasn't

2:58

I think that the Braves probably can't learn much from their bad year aside from the fact that they've invested so much in the starting lineup that if their stars don't produce, it's hard to make up value around the edges

and the Tigers? Yes, I think there's a lesson here. YOu really need a LOT of above average players in addition to some stars to not have big stretches of bad play

TigersFan1

2:58

Who do you think is the favorite from the AL? It feels like their is no clear favorite and every team has some kind of big weakness. Personally, I say Red Sox or Mariners.

Ben Clemens

2:58

Yeah, I'm with our odds in saying that I think there are no obviously great teams and so just take one of the squads with a bye

2:59

I like the M's more than the Jays, so I'll take the M's, but those are my two options for sure

Insert Witty Name Here

2:59

So my 3 year old just started tee ball, and I think it’s the funnest thing ever to see a bunch of kids dogpile over a weakly hit ground ball. My question is, when can I start telling other parents that it’s way too early for their baseball prodigies to understand launch angle?

Ben Clemens

2:59

I think you should just do it now

bring a trackman to that scrimmage

put a force plate down next to the orange slices and see which kids stomp over there most aggressively

Lars

3:00

In a bizarro universe, would a hitter with 150 walks (and none intentional) have the same WAR as the same hitter with all 150 walks being intentional?

Ben Clemens

3:00

so, no

we talked about this a few chats ago but we strip intentional walks out of wRC+ (and WAR) adn replace them with a PA at the player's IBB-excluded seasonal line

Smiling Politely

3:00

The Dodger bullpen has truly been terrible, but am I right to think concerns about it in the postseason (esp a best of 5) are overblown because of how they can deploy guys like Sheehan and Ohtani as relievers (and the apparent ability of Yama/Glasnow/Snell to go 6-7)?

Ben Clemens

3:00

yeah, I concur

3:01

and that's why I like our projection of the Dodgers as the goliaths of the NL despite a lack of byes

Dirt

3:01

Are HBP valued the same as a BB in wrc+?

Ben Clemens

3:01

they're actually valued slightly higher

why? because we value each event based on the average improvement in run scoring chances over all the situations where that event takes place, weighted by the relative frequency of its occurrence in each place

3:02

walks disproportionately occur with first base open, so they're less valuable than you'd expect a 'random' 1 base advancement to be

HBP's are pretty much random

hence, better than a walk on average

Oaktown Blues

3:02

I think this is your 3rd chat this season where the BB vs IBB WAR issue has come up

Ben Clemens

3:02

it's very confusing!

but yeah, hey, good thing we have chats to answer it

Disgruntled Mets Fan

3:02

Follow-up: Does some sort of consolidation trade to get a Joe Ryan type (think Senga + Megill + back top 30) and buffer more consistency work? I'm honestly more confident with the bullpen given just how good it was early in the season before so many guys went down, and Stearns has a track record of forming strong bullpens from spare parts, but honestly past the three rookies and Manaea (who I trust because when not injured he's been very good) who is actually trustable

Ben Clemens

3:02

yeah, I think I'm generally in favor of this plan, or signing someone

Stearns

3:03

Will he ever stop being Smart Astro Man and sign an ace?

Ben Clemens

3:03

this is the winter

Scott M

3:03

What is the best way to guesstimate injuries for players? Is there a good way?

Ben Clemens

3:03

I haven't found a good way yet

Okra

3:03

Has MLB officially announced that ball/strike challenge system is coming next year? what are the official rules?

Ben Clemens

3:03

I have not seen an announcement anywhere, so I don't think so

but it'll probably match the ST/minor league rules

3:04

in the all star game, each team got to challenge until they'd been wrong twice, only the pitcher batter and catcher can challenge

I think some version of that is likely

Jeremy

3:05

As a Phillies fan, obviously I'm happy they haven't collapsed. And I'm aware that a lot of things have gone right for them this year, especially overall health. But yet I still find myself focusing on, and worrying about, the few things have gone wrong (Wheeler injury, Nola suddenly bad, Alvarado suspended for the playoffs). Does unadulterated fan joy only come from unexpected overachievement, like the Tigers surprise run to the playoffs last year? Or do fans of juggernauts also experience unadulterated joy, because they not only expect to crush all in their path this year but also expect to do it again every year, indefinitely?

Ben Clemens

3:05

This is probably a hedonic treadmill issue

My wife's a Packers fan, one of the most successful franchises in NFL history. I know a ton of Yankees and Dodgers fans. They're all unsatisfied plenty of the time

Connecting…

Register

Message History

On Off

On Off

On Off

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

Register now to continue managing your subscriptions

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Ben Clemens hosts a chat