JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/23/24

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/23/24

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Ben Clemens

2:28

I think Vogt is going to win the award regardless, and deservedly so

hell of a season

Talfred

2:28

Regarding Pete Alonso's impending free agency, wouldn't Bryan Reynolds be a good comp? Similar age, playing time,fWAR, etc.?

Ben Clemens

2:29

First, Reynolds signed his deal as an extension, so it's not quite equivalent, though he was approaching free agency when he signed it

second, this is my point?

Alonso is getting more money than Reynolds, and for fewer years, in all likelihood

even though a WAR model would not agree with that

NL WEST

2:29

Do the Dodgers hold on?

Ben Clemens

2:29

uh.... yes?

I feel like I'm missing something here

I feel quite solid about their lead

2:30

if they win one out of three from the Padres, it's pretty much a lock

Talfred

2:30

As great as Ohtani is, isn't the 50-50 hooplah due in part to the overrating of the value of stolen bases in a player's profile?

Ben Clemens

2:30

it's because value and awesomeness don't have to be 1:1 correlated

50/50 is just undeniably cool

cool

1

2:31

I think that a lot of Ohtani's dominance fits that mold. It's just COOL

Bernie Sanders

2:31

Do you but into the idea that WAR doesn't fully capture the value of Ohtani? I agree he has the most pure talent of any player ever, but it seems a lot of other people extend that to also being the most valuable player ever.

Ben Clemens

2:31

similar

I mean.... I think that WAR comes pretty close to capturing the full value. The whole 'oh the last roster spot is great' argument feels fairly weak to me unless you're saying that it's worth 0.5 WAR or something

but you don't have to be the most valuable player by the calculations of WAR to be the most impressive player, imo

2:32

and Ohtani's raw talent is just a pleasure to behold

Also him learning to steal bases on the fly and becoming the best base stealing threat in baseball is amazing

Bosoxforlife

2:32

Do you see the ABS challenge system as being a certainty in 2025?

Ben Clemens

2:32

I don't, but I do think it's likely

I think delaying it until 2026 is definitely still an option though

AL Central Casting

2:32

I read yesterday that Willi Castro became the first player in MLB history to play at least 25 games at 5 different positions in the same season. Is this a remarkable achievement, or a bit of trivia that says more about the situation he's in than him as a player?

Ben Clemens

2:33

I think it's both. Very few players have the defensive versatility that would allow them to do this if given the chance

but that's mostly moot, because almost no one gets the chance

Ken

2:33

Something I've been noticing lately is that there's so much more injury insight for football than baseball (to be clear, for fantasy purposes). In football, I've basically got minute-by-minute updates on everyone's status for the week. Meanwhile I'm trying to figure out if I can start Brenton Doyle this week in a weekly roto league and am totally floundering for insight. It's not just a Rockies mismanagement thing, either, since I'm doing the same with Tyler O'Neill.

Is it just that reporters aren't really incentivized to be digging that deep on injuries in baseball or something else? Also, am I starting Doyle this week?

Ben Clemens

2:34

I've been thinking about this question a lot as I get push notifications of Kenneth Walker's status this year

2:35

I think that a lot of it has to do with path dependency

2:36

the NFL has always been so linked with gambling, and to a lesser extent the widespread adoption of fantasy sports, and so the whole questionable/doubtful/out (probable, back in the day) system with its required daily updates makes sense

2:37

I think the reason baseball never went the same way is that the incentives just weren't there

2:38

I'm actually really surprised that injury updates aren't standardized more now that the league has official sportsbooks and whatnot

I think that's likely to change, though never to the extent of football -- the once a week games make their system much easier to update the way they do

Tacoby Bellsbury

2:38

LouBob's got more tools than a Dave Matthews show, there's still time for him

Ben Clemens

2:38

I'm posting this one because I laughed about it

Jordan

2:38

Who do you feel will give you the best ROI on a $100-200M deal this offseason between the top free agent SP: Cole, Snell, Burnes, Fried?

Ben Clemens

2:39

I really don't think Cole is hitting the market

the way his deal is structured, there's just a very narrow window where he opts out and the Yankees don't void it with their option

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