JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/23/24

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/23/24

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Ben Clemens

2:39

I think that there's some chance of Burnes getting frozen out a little a la Snell, so he'd be my best guess

but not b/c of anything more than a hunch

Bosoxforlife

2:40

I can't help but look in disbelief at the White Sox season. If I am not mistaken a team of replacement level players are projected to play at a .294 pace. Which leads me to question the WAR of Chris Flexen. How can a 2-15 record with a 5.15 ERA, a lot more hits than innings pitched and not many K's not be a negative WAR and a large one at that?

Ben Clemens

2:40

The White Sox season is going to result in some amazing things we remember for decades

2:41

As for Flexen in particular, I'm not arguing that our calculation is perfect here but he has 0 WAR on an RA9 basis

which sounds about right to me, 5.15 ERA seems replacement level ish

2:42

neutral-ish stadium, leaguewide ERA is 4.16 for starters

I'm gonna give you a quick mathematical proof of this, one sec

2:44

a team that allows one more run per nine than it scores would go around .400 according to Pythag.... a -162 run differential for the year

That's like Marlins and Rockies territory

2:45

so that's actually a smidge BETTER than replacement level by our conception of it, but pitcher WAR is a little more complicated than that, and I'm fine saying a run above average is kinda close to replacement level overall

2:46

why do we rate him much better than that? His FIP's a little better than his ERA, so that's a tiny bit of it

but more importantly, we do a hidden calculation in our fWAR, where we convert infield fly balls into strikeouts

2:47

because they have the same EV as a strikeout - they always produce outs and never advance baserunners

and Flexen gets a TON

2:48

it's pretty hard to allow a .315 BABIP when you're also getting a ton of fly balls that don't leave the infield

but uh, have you seen the White Sox defense?

case closed

2:49

in fact, BBRef actually has him with more WAR than we do

b/c they look at that White Sox defense and shudder

Hambone Central

2:49

Brewers have gotten 18.4 WAR from their position players age 27 and younger, Orioles are at 18.3 WAR. Do the Milwaukee youngsters fly under the radar comparably because they aren't all homegrown and get more value from defense/base running?

cool

1

Ben Clemens

2:49

The defense thing is a big one

2:50

Like, I'm sorry, but Brice Turang doesn't feel like a young stud even though he's gonna end up with 2.5-3 WAR, because he's hitting .254/.316/.351

and the defense feels a little more prone to regression, than, say, a similar line with more hitting

2:51

I think also that the O's guys doing it last year makes the narrative stronger - when we all reset our brains in the offseason, Jackson Chourio will suddenly seem better to everyone

even though our estimations were all just too low b/c of his slow start

I think there are plenty of people who would still take Jackson Holliday over Chourio just b/c of priors, and I mean, no, disagree, that's bad

Lucas

2:52

Luke Weaver!!

Ben Clemens

2:52

I could not agree any more

Luke Weaver for Yankees closer

that's the real cinderella story of the year

Bosoxforlife

2:53

Can there be a better example of baseball being unable to predict than the Mets SS situation. Lindor goes down and it looks like the end of their luck and up comes Luisangel Acuna who hits .379 with 3 HR's, looks like Ozzie Smith on defense puts up 0.8 WAR in 9 games and carries the team.

Ben Clemens

2:53

I have gone from getting daily "Lindor!" texts from my Mets fan friend to daily "Acuna!" texts

pretty wild

Grandal Richuk

2:53

I don't have a question right now. But I am in a (public, free) roto fantasy league, super tight race at the top with 1-5 separated by a few points. Anyway, the funniest part is the last place guy, managed to draft Ohtani, plug him in as a pitcher and never touch his lineup again. Excellent work for him.

Ben Clemens

2:53

that is absolutely delightful

Say Hey

2:54

If there was just one MVP for all of MLB this year, who would you pick?

Ben Clemens

2:54

I'd pick Judge

Seeking Solutions

2:54

So, if you're the Pirates, do you move on from Ke'Bryan Hayes? If you're YOU, do you move on from Ke'Bryan Hayes?

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