JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/25/23

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/25/23

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Ben Clemens

2:24

I mean.... no, but fun

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:24

Why is 2B higher on the defensive spectrum than CF? Feels like CF should only be below SS and C, no?

Ben Clemens

2:24

i will say, I think this ended up the case when I tried to look into it

CF has a huge spread, though

like there are some CF's that are just WAY above the bar

i think the rando's that people squeeze into CF at times drag down the adjustment

2:25

but then in exchagne, the great defensive CF's get a huge boost

KC Pain

2:25

Baez....what happened? Guy hit .273+. for 5 years...then has been baffling bad. Sure his pitch selection sucks...but was it ever good? It reminds of the drop off from Allen Craig. Went from .300+ AS to mendoza line and out of league in like 2 seasons.

Ben Clemens

2:25

i truly don't know

it was just wham, out of nowhere

Princess Leia

2:26

Help us Obi-Wan Clemon-Obi! Baseball season is fading fast, and you’re our only hope! (Bonus points for Star Wars commander Kerkering)

Ben Clemens

2:26

weekly star wars content

also, I just started playing Jedi Fallen Order

wow is it fun

2:27

can't believe i'm four years late to the party on this one

Stat geek

2:27

Does changing balls from season to season bother you as much as it bothers me? It makes it more difficult to compare era’s

Ben Clemens

2:28

it does a little

but Ben Lindbergh's research, which I can't find right off the top of my head, suggests that the same thing has been going on for a while

and might have been a big reason behind the 'steroids era' home ru n boost

Chip

2:28

Out of possible playoff teams, what is your desired WS matchup?

Ben Clemens

2:28

O's Brewers

Steve O

2:29

Kind of amazing that the Yankees have had basically everything go wrong for them this year and are a .500ish team. Severino stunk, Montas out for the year, Rodon hurt/ineffective, Cortes hurt/ineffective, Judge missed 50 games, Rizzo played through a concussion for two months and played terribly, Stanton not hitting, Bader injured/terrible, Trevino out for the season, German alcohol rehab, Jasson Dominguez UCL tear, etc. I'm sure I'm forgetting some things but it's been a bloodbath. I think they'll be aggressive this offseason but if they make minor upgrades I think they've got a good shot at 90 wins.

Ben Clemens

2:30

This seems pretty reasonable to me

I do think that generally people catastrophize too much about good-ish teams having unlucky seasons

JR

2:30

I've always wondered why the positional adjustments aren't estimated empirically, and it seems incredibly easy to do. If you take the average or maybe median (non-positionally adjusted) RAA/162 of all 3rd basemen in the league, doesn't that give you real average level of play at that position? Maybe smoothed over n-years like park effects

Ben Clemens

2:30

I think the real argument here is whether you want to estimate it by including offensive production

I don't want to

2:31

my example would be that if the best 30 players in baseball played shortstop

and the worst 30 played left field

it'd be weird to adjust based on that

that's why we adjust based on fielding ability rather than by positional production

J6

2:31

What type of hitter would you send up to pinch hit against prime Degrom? A high power strikeout type or a low power contact guy? Let’s assume they’re both at a 100 wRC+.

Ben Clemens

2:31

honestly I'd probably send up the contact guy because I just think the true strikeout rate for a strikeout-prone hitter against deGrom is comically high

Zaidi

2:31

If SF misses the playoffs in 23 & 24, do Kapler and Zaidi stay?

Ben Clemens

2:31

I don't think so

2:32

the rope has to be getting a little bit thin given the past two years

they just haven't been able to build the combination of top end and depth

Insert Witty Name Here

2:32

Infield duo: Placido Polanco and whoever played SS. Probably not right but I just wanted to mention Placido Polanco and his weird jawline.

Ben Clemens

2:32

haha I always think of him as a 3b

but I loved Polanco and was very sad when the Cardinals traded him in the Rolen deal

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