JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/25/23

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Ben Clemens

2:32

i mean, until I got to see Rolen play, etc.

Mob

2:32

I heard you was talking about me recently. This is a really nice chat that you have here. It would be a real shame if anything were to happen to it.

Idiotic Failson

2:33

Speaking of 2B and the Yankees, remember when Brian Roberts played for the Yankees? Yuck.

Ben Clemens

2:33

honestly, i do not

Steve O

2:34

Predict Yamamoto's MLB contract and to what team.

Ben Clemens

2:34

I think he'll get.... 5/120

2:35

but I haven't done much looking at contracts this year tbh

that's October work

bringbackpologrounds

2:35

An infield question I've thought about for a while: If the league changed from 65% RH hitters to 65% LH hitters, how would the value of 2B vs SS change?

Ben Clemens

2:35

let's figure it out

2:36

so among righty hitters, 21.4% of batted balls end up pulled on the ground

Lefty hitters, 5.2% of batted balls end up pulled on the gorund

so add that with the 65% RH, right now you have 15.7% of batted balls to the 'shortstop' bucket speaking very broadly

2:37

if the ratio flipped, that would go to 10.9%

2:38

meanwhile, righties go oppo grounder 5.3% of the time, and lefties pull grounders 21.1% of their batted balls. So '2b' bucket would go from 10.8% to 15.6%

I don't think they'd quite flip value, b/c shortstop is still harder

but yes, more or less, you'd see a big shift in value towards the guy who has to make more plays

You're Peter Seidler

2:38

First, congrats on your sudden wealth.
Second, which of the following do you do this offseason?

a) Keep AJ Preller & Bob Melvin (& expect regression to the mean)
b) Fire BoMel
c) Fire Preller
d) Fire both.

Ben Clemens

2:39

probably c for me, but that's because I'm a very confident person and I'd want my own team who thinks about baseball in a broadly similar way to me in the job

2:39

RE "if the worst 30 players played left field": If a team found a left fielder who was a plus hitter and defender, he would be way more valuable in your hypothetical world than in ours, right? Because his replacement would be a bottom-30 player

Ben Clemens

2:39

right, and that's bad

I don't want that

Oh I see what you're saying

Let's say he's a 120 wrC+ hitter

and the worst shorstop is a 135 wRC+ hitter

2:40

who's worse?

Steve O

2:40

Have you seen Austin Wells catch? I'm no scout, but he looks fine back there. He can stab at the ball at times, but I think overall he's decent back there. If the Yankees didn't think he could catch, he wouldn't be catching at all right now. Kind of like what they did with Jesus Montero (who never caught an MLB game with the Yankees).

Ben Clemens

2:40

I haven't, to be honest

I just put this question up in case someone in the chat has

AL Central Casting

2:40

Are the Twins a postseason sleeper? Very good and deep starting staff, bullpen that is getting an influx of talent from surplus/recovering starters (Maeda, Paddack, Varland), and a lineup that has really hit its stride in the second half (assuming returns from Lewis, Correa, and maybe Buxton).

Ben Clemens

2:41

Sure, I guess, I just mostly think they're correctly regarded as needing to get a little lucky in any series

which means in aggregate I don't love their odds

Steve O

2:41

I think there's no way Yamamoto gets less than Masahiro Tanaka. (7/155 + 20M posting fee).

Ben Clemens

2:41

Yeah, I mean, that's possible, I've been kinda surprised by the light deals for NPB stars recently

I thought Senga would have gotten more than he did for example

The Batman

2:42

I just want to note that Bret Boone and ARod never actually played together, so they don’t count as a 2B/SS duo.

Ben Clemens

2:42

Useful point

I had no idea

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:43

Yamamoto is the shinier prospect, but Imanaga is a lefty invisiballer who is going to absolutely dominate with like the Rays or Dodgers or Guards or an org like that.

Ben Clemens

2:43

Dan's projections last year had Imanaga as better than Senga

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