JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/27/21

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Ben Clemens

2:30

Waino

It might be a marginally worse option from a pure EV standpoint

But if they don't give him a shot at it, fans would and should go crazy

And he's obviously been their best starter this year

Not Dick Monfort

2:30

I’ve loved what I’ve seen from Jon Lester in the second half, and think he would make a lot of sense for a team like, oh just picking one randomly, Colorado. What do you think we, er, they, would have to give up to get their hands on him?

Ben Clemens

2:31

1 (one) major league contract

Appa Yip Yip

2:31

Is Alejandro Kirk on the Jays to start next year or do you think he's traded?

Ben Clemens

2:31

I think he'll still be there. As much as I love Moreno, you can't count on him being an immediate solution and Kirk is a really flexible way to have a backup plan

Yankees Injury List

2:32

Do the Yankees make a qualifying offer on Sanchez? Wouldn't that come out to like $10 Million? And really, would it be that hard to find someone who can actually..you know, play catcher for that?

Ben Clemens

2:32

Serious non-tender risk

I would probably non-tender him and I like him, though some of that is residual good feelings from how fun New York was his rookie year

QBall

2:32

Nicky Lopez is a 4-win player. I'm sure you saw that coming, right?

Ben Clemens

2:32

Okay, so hear me out

I did see it coming, but a long time ago rather than recently and not in this way

2:33

I went to the Fall League in 2017 and saw a game where Acuna and Lopez were on the same team

They both hit homers, and Acuna's was a majestic dead center bullet, while Lopez's was a pulled just-enough right field job

2:34

But I looked at Lopez's stats and convinced myself that he was Jose Altuve 2.0

So I had TONS of Nicky Lopez stock (hypothetically of course) going into 2018

Then I'd totally given up and now he's good again!

Tony Kemp MVP

2:35

This morning’s high octane KC-Cleveland pitching matchup was Jackson Kowar vs Cal Quantrill. Which of them is more likely to be starting MLB games in two years?

Ben Clemens

2:35

I'll say Kowar because I just REALLY don't believe in Quantrill

2:35

I’ve never understood why MVP candidates get extra credit for being on good teams. Shouldn’t the guys who have less around them get more credit for producing at such a high level despite having less talent around them?

Ben Clemens

2:36

I think it's a fine tiebreaker, but I don't think it should matter very much either way

The argument against a player on a bad team winning it is that they weren't actually valuable to the team because the team didn't accrue any value from moving between say, 68 and 74 wins

but honestly, I mostly just want to vote for the best player

Treat Urner

2:36

Is there a positional adjustment for the baserunning metric on FanGraphs? (Put another way, is J.T. Realmuto rated as the 11th best baserunner because he's great *for a catcher* and gets a bump relative to a replacement catcher, or because he's great, period?)

Ben Clemens

2:36

There is not

The only positional adjustment is applied under 'def'

2:37

Realmuto is just a good baserunner. And he is 8th in UBR, which is our pure baserunning stat

So it doesn't take into account steals or double plays with the player batting

It's only advancements on balls in play when you're already on base

(and wild pitches and passed balls)

2:38

He's just a great baserunner

Dan

2:38

Hi Ben, what are your thoughts about Kirilloff's offensive upside? It felt like a strange start for him - good/great exit velocities, meh results, not enough walks. Is he a 30+ HR guy?

Ben Clemens

2:38

I think his upside is a 35-HR power hitting type. I'm pretty out on him ever hitting for average, the BABIP has just been so bad for so long that I now think he's actually doing something wrong that I just can't figure out

JohnThacker

2:38

Will the Cardinals finally rest Gallegos and the rest of their top relievers this week, and how much will the extra rest help them in the WC game versus the NL West runner-up?

Ben Clemens

2:39

They better. I'm still a Cards fan (though I do think I do a good job being objective when I cover them) and their bullpen management this year just grinds my gears

Mrs. Phanatic

2:40

Read the transcript last week, curious to know how exactly one trades interest rates? Did you have any problems with groupies?

Ben Clemens

2:41

Haha, there are definitely not groupies. It's a very obscure finance job, a lot of it comes down to the fact that there are many different interest rates (different times, different bond maturities, etc.) but they're all quite correlated

So it's a math puzzle

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