JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/27/21

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Inaccessible Rail

2:41

Sadly, I don't think the Zombie Runner rule is going away. Both management and players hate extra-inning games. It's one of the only things they can easily agree on.

Ben Clemens

2:41

I would normally agree with you but Manfred specifically mentioned it as something he wanted to get rid of

https://sports.yahoo.com/rob-manfred-says-seven-inning-doubleheaders-a...

stever20

2:42

Will we ever see starting pitching return to where a 5 inning pitcher isn't considered normal again?

Ben Clemens

2:42

Sadly I don't think so

Rob Mains did a really good deep dive into the continuing evolution of the starting pitcher over at BP this month if you hvae the time to read it

Appa Yip Yip

2:42

What kind of a contract is Steven Matz looking at? 2/24? 3/30?

Ben Clemens

2:43

I must confess that Matz has mostly been off my radar this year

He's been great in the second half!

2:44

I think it's more likely he gets something like 1/12 or 1/15 as a prove-it deal

He's only 30, so I think it's in his best interests to bet on himself a little

Appa Yip Yip

2:44

Zombie runner starting in the 12th inning should be a thing though. So few games get that deep spice it up.

Inaccessible Rail

2:44

Didn't Manfred recant like the next day?

Ben Clemens

2:45

He did, but it was still a telling statement

2:46

I really like the zombie runner rule!

But I know that most people do not

5 Run Homer

2:46

C is such a variable position that it feels like keeping Jansen and Kirk around is the best idea; if Moreno pops then you deal with it then, instead of banking on it

Ben Clemens

2:46

This is exactly where I land

Catching prospects are really tough to get a handle on too

It's just a position where development is far from linear in many instances

stever20

2:47

Do you think the shift is gone after this year?

Ben Clemens

2:47

I do no

not*

It's too far down the list of things that this CBA needs to solve, in my opinion

Smiling Politely

2:47

People down here are drunk with tabloids and sports, but let's humor them -- what would a theoretical swap of Ohtani for Bellinger + $/others look like, and is there a meaningful, nonzero chance of it happening?

Ben Clemens

2:48

Um.... what?

Bellinger is sub-replacement level this year and he'll probably make 17-20 million next year, more the year after that, then hit free agency

He's been bad for two straight years, and it wouldn't be unreasonable to just say he's an average player going forward

2:49

But one with huge salaries due to arb

2:50

Ohtani's arb case next year will be interesting, and he's a free agent the same year, but you're looking at trading the likely AL MVP for a guy who is more expensive but also likely to be meaningfully worse

2:51

So like.... Ohtani for Bellinger (but first the Dodgers sign him to a two-year extension and cover 100% of the salary, say 40 million dollars) plus also Gavin Lux and Julio Urias? That sounds like an overpay but I think that's probably the right range

The Dodgers have NO prospects to trade

Not Dick Monfort

2:51

If I (random person who doesn’t own the Rockies) can get my hands on V. Robles, how much $ will I have to throw in to flip him for Ohtani?

Ben Clemens

2:51

Now I like where THIS one is going

2:52

I think you should probably get Bellinger first, it sounds like the Angels are interested in him

Mike

2:52

Do you ever get sick of all the “they’re playing a game why are they being paid so much” talk? I heard someone say teachers, firefighters etc. should (perhaps they ‘should’) make more than athletes and other entertainers while also claiming to be a staunch capitalist and supporter of lower taxes.

Ben Clemens

2:52

With the caveat that I am not gonna get political on here

2:53

People's ability to hold two disparate ideas in their head is always amusing to see in action