JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGrpahs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGrpahs Chat - 6/10/24

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Ben Clemens

2:36

what a monswer

monster

2:36

Do you think Jordan Walker ever reaches his 80 game power grade? He's only 22 but it just seems like he can never lift the ball.

Ben Clemens

2:37

nah, I don't. I do really think he has 80 raw though

Guest

2:37

I've been thinking about your article on trading newly good relievers for prospects and how it's unrealistic for fans to expect much from them. I mean I'm sure there are always counterexamples for articles like that but I feel like the Effross trade in 2022 shows that high-quality prospects are available even for relievers without much experience

Effross had <60 career MLB innings when traded and the Cubs got the Hayden Wesneski, the Yankees #7 prospect who was playing well in the high minors (and the Yankees had a lot of good prospects at the time)

Is this just an exception or is Wesneski below the caliber of prospects you were considering?

Also probably worth noting that this trade has gone terribly for the Yankees so may dissuade similar behavior from other teams

Ben Clemens

2:38

Wesneski was definitely below the caliber of prospects I'm talking about, by our rankings, at the time

I'm looking over the trade roundup I wrote for that transaction

We had Wesneski at a 40+, and 17th-best prospect in the NY system

2:39

so like, maybe I'm using the wrong prospect grades? But I think that teams certainly discounted Yankee arms who suddenly gained velo after being drafted

Champdo

2:39

It doesn’t make sense for the Tigers to trade Skubal right?

Ben Clemens

2:39

I do not think so

When are you planning on being good if you keep trading your good players?

I want my baby back baby back baby back

2:39

if the jays end up actually trading Vlad, which teams are the top landing spots? mariners? Trying to figure out who in contention needs a 1B/DH…is his getting a run at 3B an attempt to increase the market for teams needing a 3B upgrade?

Ben Clemens

2:40

I definitely think that they're playing him at 3rd to widen his potential landing spots. But I don't think a big deal is gonna get done, because he's Vlad Freaking Guerrero but 1b bats are just not that valuable at the deadline

so there's this weird situation where a trade that values Vlad 'fairly' would be very unpopular in Toronto, both in the clubhouse and for fans

bosoxforlife

2:41

If Chris Sale continues to perform at the level he has then he should finally get the Cy Young as a type of lifetime achievement award.

Ben Clemens

2:41

I agree with this. I erroneously assign a Cy Young to Sale in my head all the time

it's crazy that he never won it

New Yanks velo

2:41

Why do/did teams discount new velo from Yanks prospects? Can’t they hold on to it?

Ben Clemens

2:42

Just that a lot of those guys haven't looked nearly as sharp after leaving the friendly confines of the Yanks minor league system. they did a great job trading built-up pitchers for a ton of people in the lats few years. I think they got Frankie Montas exclusively for pitchers, more or less

yeah Ken Waldichuk, Luis Medina, JP Sears

they did the same for Soto

2:43

and I think in a lot of these cases, they're trading like one-ish more arm than you'd expect, and that's because teams are like 'can AL these guys be that good?'

Guest

2:43

Ben, how outdated is the pre game win probability model as shown in the Live Scoreboard? Has there been any emphasis on modifying it to enhance predictions?

Ben Clemens

2:44

Really depends what you mean by outdated. It's definitely simple. It just builds projected run scoring and runs allowed based on the posted game lineups on both sides (and a very simple accounting for the bullpen)

Big Reem

2:44

Wheeler has to be right behind Scherzer on the best free agent contracts, right? Didn't see his name mentioned

Ben Clemens

2:44

A few other people pointed him out, and yeah

he definitely counts

Guest

2:44

If Scherzer is the best free agent contract above 100 million, is Strasburg the worst? The Nationals pitchers giveth and the Nationals pitchers taketh away.

Ben Clemens

2:45

Oh, surely not, b/c the Nats almost assuredly got a lot of insurance payments back

Seiya ain't So

2:45

Will Seiya Suzuki ever get over the hump? Every time he looks like he's about to break out, he falls back to earth. The defense has been inconsistent. What's your take on his future?

Ben Clemens

2:45

man.... I still think he will

despite having been wrong about this specific thing many times

I totally believe in Seiya

2:46

and he looked like he figured it all out at the end of last year, and then nope

i mean, he's still hitting, i'll give him that

but I thought he'd improve on defense by more than he has, and injuries have definitely been a consistent problem

I think he is what he is at this point, basically

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:46