JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGrpahs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGrpahs Chat - 6/10/24

Prev Page View Full Chat

Ben Clemens

2:46

baseball is less fun to watch when no one scores runs

SpicieBoy

2:47

I thought the Nats were unable to get insurance coverage on the Strasburg contract due to his injury history

nats fan

2:47

There was no insurance on the stras contract! He was uninsurable bc of his injury history

Ben Clemens

2:47

well that makes it worse!

Guest

2:48

Im aware of the methodology. I run my own model using the same framework but I think the PA Forecasting could be potentially very flawed. The process of accounting for the right number of PA's awarded to each team based upon the quality of their opposition (i.e. an above average hitting team is going to accrue more PA's in a single game against a below average pitching team than their season average), these things cause more Base Runs to be achieved . Any idea you guys are accounting for the PA interaction effects?

Ben Clemens

2:48

Let's just say that is low on our list, the site has had a ton of cool improvements in recent years but I think revamping our game odds from like, pretty good (we've tested them and they do alright) to add a little is not highest priority

that's not really my area, I'm just a sometimes helper

but I'd guess there are many things we'd fix before that

SpicieBoy

2:49

Unironically I want MLB to rejuice the baseballs. I don't get why we were mad about that in 2019. 2017-2019 was a really fun time for baseball

Ben Clemens

2:49

agreed

Plate discipline metrics

2:49

Is there a summary somewhere on the site of the difference between the three sets of plate discipline metrics (statcast?pitch info/SIS)?

can there be a summary of the different sources of plate disciple metrics

Ben Clemens

2:49

There isn't but I can give you one here

they measure the strike zone slightly differently

that's the whole different

2:50

difference

London Calling

2:50

% chance Luis Robert goes at the deadline? And which teams are most likely to get him?

Ben Clemens

2:50

I just have it very low

Plate discipline metrics

2:50

thanks for answering my butchered question. Is one more accurate? SIS zone seems waaaay different

Ben Clemens

2:50

I dunno, honestly! I just like using the same one every time for consistency. So I tend to just use Statcast these daysb/c sometimes I'm pulling data directly from Savant

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:50

i've seen a conspiracy theory that the league messed with 2024 balls (shocker) to try to limit how much breaking pitches move, with the unintended consequence being they don't fly as far

Ben Clemens

2:51

I could totally see that

I want my baby back baby back baby back

2:52

Regarding the low league wide OPS, what are your preferred approaches/suggestions on how to increase it?

Ben Clemens

2:53

I want more lively baseballs. I'd like to see experimentation with lower roster limits for pitchers, and restrictions on transactions involving pitchers who threw in the previous game

New Yanks velo

2:53

The conventional Nats world wisdom: The Nats got very little, if anything, back in Stras insurance. (Source: Svrluga reporting or educated guess, or a combo)

SpicieBoy

2:53

Are Savant stats (xwOBA, xERA, etc) useful? Baseballsavant has said that they're intended to be descriptive, not predictive. I've tested them and found they're actually sometimes less predictive than real world results. Building a statistical model to predict what "should have" happened seems like an inherently flawed process (a perfect model would tell you would actually happened, a really bad model would have no basis in reality). That seems like a lot of inherent statistical error, and if those numbers aren't predictive then I don't see how they're actually useful. I also take extreme issue with some rate stats (like barrel%) being presented as per BBE instead of per PA. This seems to punish hitters like Bellinger who cut their K% for occasionally weak contact but still hit roughly the same number of barrels per PA

Ben Clemens

2:53

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yes-hitter-xstats-are-useful/

2:54

Dan did something on this

bosoxforlife

2:54

It is the season for peach roulette and my local grocery had them on sale last week. I risked $4 on 6 beauties and hit the jackpot. All were perfect!

Ben Clemens

2:54

I lost at tomato roulette SO HARD yesterday

bought some at the local fancy schmancy grocery store for a salad and they were abysmal

Judge

2:54

"baseball is less fun to watch when no one scores runs": And it became personal for me (note: this is what Jordan actually said)

Ben Clemens

2:54

2:55

alright, I'm doing some caretaking of the sick (wife and dog, what a double whammy), so I'm gonna call it a day. Thanks so much for chatting with me and I'll talk to you again next week

Connecting…

Message History

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Ben Clemens hosts a chat