JotCast | Ben Clemens Top 50 Free Agents Chat

Ben Clemens Top 50 Free Agents Chat

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Ben Clemens

2:16

failing that, I honestly don't see a lot of options. THere are a lot of meh bats that the Pirates might eventually sign, that's their MO, but I don't think they are great fits for many top players this year

The ghost of CBAs yet to come

2:17

Looking back at a lot of the signings and extensions, or lack thereof, of the Cubs the past several seasons, I get a strong sense that the Ricketts family believes there’s going to be a work stoppage and potential major restructuring of the MLB labor landscape in 2027. Do you think there are specific teams that are approaching this offseason with particular mind to next year’s CBA negotiations? Do you think there are some teams in position to take advantage of other teams lack of willingness to engage in long term deals? If so, who?

Ben Clemens

2:17

I mean, surely, right?

I think that 'no team is considering next year's CBA negotiations' is a completely unrealistic position

2:18

As for what that means -- well, try as I might, I haven't yet gotten teams to send me a spreadsheet of their exact dollar preferences and how they vary based on otehr deals they make

so I'll settle for 'the market will be more segmented'

small e

2:18

If you're the Red Sox, would you QO Giolito, or is there too much risk of him accepting it? They have the back of the rotation pretty well covered with young guys and it seems like he's unlikely to be better in 26 than 25.

Ben Clemens

2:18

Oh I definitely would not

I assume he would hit the bid immediately

2:19

Gio is another guy who I have ranked behind several players I think he'll out-earn - but even then, that's at 2/14

2:20

and as convention, I'm gonna keep describing all contracts as years/AAV, in case I hadn't mentiond that yet

basically I think that the peripherals were pretty gross, and I think that Steamer's projection (4.70 ERA, 1.2 WAR in a full season) is about right, maybe a bit optimistic

Charlie R

2:20

Help me with some valuation confusion! I keep seeing trade proposals (from writers, etc. not fans) involving Jarren Duran, and I am genuinely shocked by how much more people think needs to be added in a trade for a good SP (which is the majority of the proposals). Even if you think 2024 was a big outlier, Duran is a 3-4+ WAR outfielder with three more years of team control, yet people insist that the Red Sox would have to add multiple top-100 prospects to get someone like Joe Ryan (or someone similar). Even with pitchers generally commanding more, I just don't get it – is the league view of Duran that much lower than it seems?

And to be clear from my last question re: Duran, I'm not necessarily saying the Twins would want him during a rebuild – you can insert other pitchers. It just seems like writers are heavily discounting Duran's value and I'm not sure what I'm missing.

Ben Clemens

2:20

Ah yes, 'writers'

I'll just say this

Duran's never getting traded, there's a value mismatch

2:21

like, 3-4+ WAR outfielder is one view

another is that of the projection systems, who think he's a 2-3 WAR guy going forward

late breakouts like Duran, especially ones whose value is built around things like speed and defense, just don't project well

maybe he'll be the exception. people are. But I think that teams who would be acquiring Duran are treating him as a short-term proposition

2:22

as in, sure I like his age 28 season, but I'm down on the age 31 season that I'm also acquiring in this deal

2:23

and he's not as cheap as you'd like, 7.7 million in your second year of arb (he already settled on that) is a pretty good pace to cap out around 15-20 mil

basically I think a lot of teams would like to have him as a good outfield starter for the present. But the Sox seem to be content to wait for someone to value him like a cornerstone

2:24

That makes sense to me! If they think he's that, why would they trade him? But I just don't see much going on here as a result

wheelhouse

2:24

most likely yankee besides bellinger in the top 50? i think it's <10% that they even seriously bid on tucker

Ben Clemens

2:25

I dunno, a bunch of relievers?

I don't think they're a great fit for Tucker, agreed

Kyle

2:25

Did you have a prediction for Story prior to him opting in?

Ben Clemens

2:25

definitely not

I had him listed as 'sure to decline opt out'

2:25

How much does the imminent lockout impact teams willingness to commit long term dollars this offseason?

Andrew

2:25

Is there any concern with how the market will respond to an impending lockout? Did your model take into account the bigger markets teams concerns of a potential cap?

Ben Clemens

2:26

Oh, there's definite concern, but it's the kind of thing where if I told you I could quantify the effect, I'd just be lying

I erred on the side of shorter deals where I could, which makes a lot of sense, and my inflation rate for $/WAR is lower than it has been in recent years

2:27

But realistically, I'm a guy with a spreadsheet and some experience modeling financial derivatives, not someone sitting in a team board room and getting you the true best dirt

It's a guess

also: no one's sitting in a team board room and getting you the true best dirt, sadly

Simon

2:27

You mentioned Gleyber Torres, would you feel better about him as a potential target if he was amendable to moving to 1B or 3B this upcoming season?

Ben Clemens

2:28

Third? Sure. And I'm sure he's amenable to a move there. First? No thanks, a first baseman with a 10% above average batting line is just not interesting to me

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