JotCast | Ben Clemens Top 50 Free Agents Chat

Ben Clemens Top 50 Free Agents Chat

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Ben Clemens

2:29

I don't think Torres has basically ever displayed the kind of offense that would make me excited to put him at first

Jack

2:29

Had a lively discussion with friends about Sonny Gray this morning. Seemed like we disagreed mostly on how his no trade clause will be wielded (we saw Arenado be selective last offseason), and of course the money is a big obstacle too with the backloading. Any thoughts on likely landing spots?

Ben Clemens

2:30

I don't actually think the money is an obstacle, to be honest. It's possible that the strange shape of the deal matters more? So if Gray shoves this year, he can become a free agent

even if the team acquiring him exercises its club option

2:31

like, you can always pay down part of a deal if you think the money is what's holding you back. But it seems like the bigger issue here is the lack of certain control plus not knowing what he wants to do. So I have no idea how his no trade clause will be wielded but presumably, he saw how much fun Arenado had with his (looked bad, annoyed Cards fans, bummer of a season afterwards) and is more willing to move

Sam

2:31

Hey Ben, thanks for all the hard work lately. Looking forward to all the offseason coverage. What am I missing on Cease? I get the concern with his two pitch reliance and command issues, but I think with his track record and age he clears $200 MM. Compared to someone like Framber, I struggle to see how teams won't offer more length given his age. Curious to hear your thoughts.

Ben Clemens

2:32

I'm not wild about either Cease or Valdez, to be honest with you. I gave them both bumps as the top arms on the market, but I feel like there are meaningful red flags for both

2:34

I have Cease getting a little more because he's younger, but I think that both of them are in the range of 'this guy is nice, I probably would not be comfortable with him as my ace'

For the record my very simplistic model, which just uses ZiPS, Steamer, and a bunch of actual historical data, would give him even less

2:35

I think that it's wrong, to be clear. I think that the fact that teams like aces (the only places where contracts have been surprising to the long side in recent yeras are premium starters) will help him

2:36

but basically, I don't expect many guys to get more than 5 years this winter

I believe I only have three, and one of them is the special case of Murakami

Okra

2:36

You have mentioned a few times the decline in Woodruff's stuff. But apart from fastball velocity, what are you seeing? Over 12 starts his K, BB, SwStr%, barrel% (32%, 5%, 12%, 7%) all look great and at career norms.

Ben Clemens

2:36

those aren't stuff

maybe his results will work out

2:37

but like... I watched him pitch

and I went oh, his stuff's not as good

like, you can't have watched Woodruff this year and not thought that

maybe you think "oh he's getting it done anyway"

2:38

but.... PitchingBot had him at a 55 stuff through 2023, 42 stuff in 2025. Stuff+ had him at 110 through 2023, 96 in 2025

this is not controversial. Maybe he can adjust and keep getting similar results with meaningfully worse pitches. I would not invest a ton of money trying to find out, if I were GM'ing

2:38

Appreciated your note in the Intro about mid-tier pitching attracting higher relative FA investment than hitters. With what we've seen in year-over-year performance volatility, are there any RPs on your list that GM Ben would actually chase at their predicted contracts?

Ben Clemens

2:38

I actually like a lot of the guys at the back of the top 50

I totally agree with the natural pressures facing teams here, and I'd be acting the same way as them

2:39

it's just not very interesting to me to sign a 1.5 WAR hitter (unless i need a backup catcher, that's a very different market)

I think I'm probably higher on the relievers in the last 10 than fans are. I think that they're a really useful way to fill out your team

fried rice

2:39

do these quasi-surprising opt-ins (flaherty, story, bieber) suggest players are scared of what the market might look like

Ben Clemens

2:39

Okay, so Story's is just not surprising at all

2:40

the guy has played 900 PA in the last three years. He has a 92 wRC+ in that time. He's 33. He'd barely be in the top 50 if he opted out, and it was like 3/20 or something

the other two? If I'd gotten those data points a week ago, I would probably be down a bit on my estimates, yes

2:41

I thought that both Flaherty and Bieber were so cuspy that I do think this tells you agents and players are down, directionally, on the market

but truthfully, this all happened in the last day, and I was too busy writing a managerial report card and redoing some blurbs and finalizing the publication schedule (and replacing those two guys in the 50 when they didn't become free agents) that I just stuck with what i had

Thomas

2:42

Kinda shocked at how low Bichette is, given that he's at least two years younger than all the position players ahead of him save Tucker. Do you just think he's going to get overpaid? I'd feel better about him than Alonso for sure, and maybe Bregman and Bellinger. Schwarber's such an odd case that it's tough to judge

Bret

2:42

What do you give the odds that Bo Bichette is a SS in 2026 vs. a 2B?

Ben Clemens

2:42

so, yeah, that's just my preference order

if I were the GM of a team, I'd just be afraid of giving Bichette a bag and then having him turn into a pumpkin too soon

2:43

the trajectory is terrifying!

I'm usually a risk it for the biscuit guy when it comes to top free agents but I think that Bichette "shouldn't" clear that bar

like, if everyone evaluated players the exact way I do in my head

2:44

the thing is, he's a Silver Slugger shortstop who's 28, he's gonna get paid. So even though I had a relatively low view of him in preference order, I'm fairly confident someone is going to give him a lot of money. I don't know who, to be clear, but I do think he will

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