JotCast | Ben Clemens Top 50 Free Agents Chat | 11/5/2025

Ben Clemens Top 50 Free Agents Chat

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Ben Clemens

2:56

mmmm.... I think that telling you with any certainty would be overstating my confidence, and really the ability of projection systems

2:57

lots of hitters redo their swings

sometimes it changes their career completely. sometimes it's great for a year and then it breaks. sometimes it does nothing. You'd have to ask Dan for the exact set of the inputs he uses but I'll say that I didn't consider a swing change that much at all, I looked a lot more at the under the hood stats and results

Kevin

2:58

I have to be honest, I am a little disappointed in Fangraphs coverage of game 7. I don't think one article does that game (which was arguable the greatest game in the history of the sport) justice. Just my two cents.

cool

1

Ben Clemens

2:58

Honestly, as someone who just put out 8000 words of content about John Schneider in the past two days, plus another 8000 about free agents, I think this chat is probably not the most reasonable place to complain about this

but uh, yeah, sorry? Look, we cover a LOT of baseball. I wish we could cover more

2:59

We're always trying to cover more!

Jack

2:59

Is Schwarber really going to get 5 years? The variance for his future is amazing

Ben Clemens

2:59

I can't see it, even though I too have seen rumors to that effect

Just.... too much for me, and too out of step with the way contracts have been going broadly

Okra

2:59

2/30 for O'Hearn seems crazy to me since guys just like him are always cheap/available at the deadline. Also, don't have to squint too hard to see your prospect turning into a 1.5WAR 1B/OF/DH. thoughts?

Ben Clemens

3:00

I think O'Hearn is clear of the dead zone, basically

I could definitely be wrong

3:01

but I think that he's demonstrated a clear enough skill for multiple years that I don't have to look too hard to find teams who would feel confident that he could out-hit their best lefty bat

best lefty prospect bat

3:02

But he's clearly cuspy. And that's how the list is, really. AFter the cluster of hitters that O'Hearn is in (Bader, Polanco, O'Hearn, Kim, Realmuto, Ozuna), there are almost no other bats of interest

I have two backup catchers and Luis Arraez, and no other hitters, getting more than like 1/8

3:03

so I do think that if I'm wrong on O'Hearn, it's b/c you were right and he gets almost nothing

Sad Mariners fan

3:04

Chances M’s sign Naylor?

Ben Clemens

3:04

I think the chances of them signing a first baseman/DH are very high. I don't feel that I have much edge in predicting who, to be honest with you

Jack

3:04

Any spots you like Ranger to end up on (assuming he won't be back in Philly sadly)? Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles, Giants, Padres all come to mind

Ben Clemens

3:05

oh, interesting. I think the O's are probably out in that they are notably hesitant to spend free agency money on pitchers, and so Suarez would be a weird one to break the bank for given their previous behavior

3:06

Giants makes sense to me if they don't think they're signing Tucker. Basically, more Logan Webbs seems good there

Joe R

3:06

Unless I'm misunderstanding, it sounds like you think Duran is staying in Boston ("I'll just say this Duran's never getting traded, there's a value mismatch"). If so, who are they moving? They have to clear that outfield logjam somehow, no?

Ben Clemens

3:06

Well, I said 'they have to clear that outfield logjam somehow' last winter

laughing

1

and they traded Rafael Devers

crying

1

so, I dunno. It's a really interesting puzzle!

3:07

My two cents, as an armchair psychologist, is that they're going to be very stubborn, trade no one, and live with the waste

I think that endowment effect is very real, and that once you get an idea in your head for what you need to trade someone, it's very hard to settle for less

But I don't think even the Sox know what they're gonna do. So I definitely don't know

Blue Myself Prematurely

3:08

Who are the best targets for the Jays this offseason? Bichette hurts to lose, but pitching seems like a more urgent need.

Ben Clemens

3:08

This is an old one, but I really enjoyed the screen name (this person had rpeviously submitted the question half-typed)

3:09

I actually think they should sign Bichette, haha. Move him to second. I just think it's a year where I want to be out of the pitching market if I can swing it. The Toronto rotation isn't that dire. Maybe Bichette and some good relievers? Or Merrill Kelly in the Max Scherzer role?

Guest

3:10

Any chance of teams offering any of the elite SP a longer deal like Fried? Both Framber and Cease are estimated at 5

Ben Clemens

3:10

there is definitely a chance

these things are super hard! i'm just guessing, you know?

I think that I'm on the short end for contract lengths almost across the board

now, in my defense, MLB teams also have been for years

3:11

Here's a fun way of putting it: I took the top 40 names on my list b/c that's how many another talent evaluator/writer also projected

as in, they had one for all 40

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