JotCast | Ben Clemens Top 50 Free Agents Chat

Ben Clemens Top 50 Free Agents Chat

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2:44

Btw didn’t Yamamoto’s stuff grade out worse than Woodruff’s this year? They still owe him 260 M..

Ben Clemens

2:45

it didn't! and while stuff models aren't perfect, CHANGE in stuff models is more useful, because it lets you know if someone is getting worse or better

but look, if you think Yamamoto is worse than Woodruff, I don't think I'm convincing you of anything

Phim

2:45

I'm not sure if the issue with Devin Williams this year was not being able to handle NY, but the pattern was that he would struggle in high leverage and dominate when demoted (.075/.205/.104 line against in low leverage situations). Small sample but if I were a big market GM I would at least be thinking about that before signing him as a closer.

That said, Williams looked OK in the playoffs so who knows?

Ben Clemens

2:46

I'm gonna be honest, one of my biggest leaks as a GM would be that i just don't believe in this crap

I would absolutely not be thinking about that before signing him, and maybe that's to my detriment

Jack

2:46

You mentioned you had 3 players getting 5 years or more...I assume that is Murakami like you said and then Tucker? Framber?

Ben Clemens

2:46

whoops, that should have said 'more than five years'. And Tucker, Murakami, Bichette

not the lunch guy

2:46

I get there are red flags about Imanaga but... does opting out of 3/57 really make sense for the Cubs? Is that how down the market is?

Ben Clemens

2:47

I was surprised by this one, though it's actually more like 3/65 given the posting agreement (15% of total deal gets paid to the BayStars)

but yeah, I was a little surprised, but I also think that they might just quickly come to an agreement on a similar deal and save some money

2:48

one really useful thing about QO'ing a player you want to re-sign is that no one else is going to give them more than $50 million if their value is in that rough range, because there's a bright line: under 50, cheap penalties, over 50, big penalties

so now the Cubs have kinda capped Imanaga's market, and that makes negotiating easier

Fin

2:48

Other than Bregman, are there any other top 20-30 free agents you see as good fits for the Red Sox? Schwarber and Alonso fit well in that the team needs more power, but poorly in that they clog up DH (Alonso will in 2-3 years at the latest) when they already have a surfeit of position players and need to rotate them around. What about SP--possible that they sign a mid-tier one to go with the one it seems like they're aiming to trade for?

Ben Clemens

2:49

Yeah, I think that if they want to spend money on free agents and it's not Bregman, it almost has to be pitching

2:50

I agree with your assessment of the bat-first guys, they just don't feel like the right fits to me. Maybe Ha-Seong Kim? I will be honest and say I've considered his market less than the rest of the guys around him since I added him partway through the process, but he's a far superior infield option to what they've been working with

Okra

2:50

I would be dying to get Shota Imanaga to sign if I were SF or Detroit. He could really excel in a ballpark that suppresses home runs.

Ben Clemens

2:50

yeah, I could see those if the deal is short. I really am serious about the 50 mil thing, though

there's a pretty strong chilling effect on guys whose market value would be right around that cutoff without the QO, and I think he's gonna get hit hard by it

robertobeers

2:51

Tyler Rogers as the 5th reliever off the board feels the most correct position. With that in mind, how often is is RA9-WAR going to be above the 1-4 guys over the next 3 seasons?

Ben Clemens

2:51

twice on average

I wanted to put Rogers even higher, lol

in my first cut of the list he was the second reliever on the board. And at some point I said hey Ben, sure this is YOUR top 50, but you can't just completely ignore what the market thinks

Billy

2:52

Giants seem like the perfect fit for Tucker, no? Need lefty bats, glaring hole in RF, more star power to at least pretend to keep up w LA, etc

Ben Clemens

2:52

Yeah, now that I could totally see

that's the kind of team where Tucker's ability to play an average corner outfield spot is very useful

and then yeah, lefty bats, I actually think he's a good fit vibe wise for SF as a chill star, Posey has been trying to add stars

2:53

I'm not really sure the money adds up, but I bet you they'll at least be kicking the tires

re: imanaga

2:53

The Cubs getting a massive discount on Imanaga because of strangely specific MLB rules again would be kinda funny. Two nickels, etc.

Ben Clemens

2:53

haha yes

2:54

I actually think a lot of guys get got by this particular one.... but yes, two different rules getting Imanaga is annoying

and honestly the posting rule kind of got him AGAIN here in that it made the Cubs owe more than he was gonna get, which made the deal look worse to them

Jack

2:54

Similar to the Giants-Tucker and Pirates bats question, I'm really curious how the Phillies rework the outfield. I think the only sure thing is Justin Crawford gets called up and Castellanos is gone one way or another. Tucker is big money but who wouldn't at least inquire?

Ben Clemens

2:54

oh 100%. That's another one that makes perfect sense to me

Gallo Enjoyer

2:54

Where would you rate Munetaka Murakami, on a scale of Joey Gallo (Yankees) to Joey Gallo (Rangers)

Ben Clemens

2:55

I watched a ton of video of Murakami for this, and I got a ton of advice from Eric as well, and yeah, I dunno man

high risk!

2:56

very clearly, the talent is there. Even with the strikeouts, he is flat out obliterating NPB pitching. I think I'm more like Joey Gallo Rangers, but the error bars are enormous

Krusty

2:56

Your write-up is great! Regarding Pete: Alonso redid his swing over the winter & improved significantly both in terms of outputs & under the hood. Obviously, it improves his near-term outlook but how much impact can that sort of improvement have on his aging curve generally?

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