JotCast | Ben Clemens Trade Value Series Chat -7/26/24

Ben Clemens Trade Value Series Chat -7/26/24

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Ben Clemens

10:23

and likewise, there's some endowment effect: you love your guy, you've seen him in team meetings, he's in the cage at 6 am after a loss, gotta round up on his value b/c of that

I think that really keeps challenge trades from happening more

Harry

10:24

To have Tatis at 6, which it seems I find far more reasonable than others, that means you think he’s minimum top 10, but probably a top 5 position player in the game, right?

Ben Clemens

10:24

Yeah, I do on a go-forward basis. Probably..... fifth? Right around there at least

Johny5Alive

10:25

Should lindor have been higher? He's been the best player in the NL since May. I know there was given about defensive regression, but I dunno. The man might end up in the list of top 10 SS ever to play.

Ben Clemens

10:26

I think that you could feasibly move that group of Harper/Lindor/Seager/Marte around quite a bit on here. One thing that is implied in these is that I'm guessing, and I'm trying to put myself in people's shoes because I'm certainly not talking to every team, and even if I did it's not like I'm sneaking into their offices and taking a snapshot of the big 'trade value' board they keep

10:27

Where teams actually value players like this is not simple to peg, though I think there's plenty of evidence that they do treat concentration of WAR as valuable independent of surplus value

Just look at both times Juan Soto got traded, or Mookie Betts getting traded with one year left on his deal, etc.

10:28

That said, there's no formula, you know? I tried to calibrate but I could be off 15 spots in either direction easily

Ozzie

10:28

The Orioles have 5 players on the list, and 4 more in the "promising youth" section of the Honorable Mention. Does any team compare to that combination of strength and depth?

Ben Clemens

10:28

No, right now they are head and shoulders ahead of everyone else in this

10:29

I think that makes for an interesting task for the front office. They've racked up the most theoretical value in the game. Can they find a way to turn it into on-field success?

Dan

10:29

Is Skenes already so good he can't possibly rank higher on this list in future years? He can only improve so much but can't reduce his injury risk and won't give more cheap years of control.

Ben Clemens

10:29

I think he'd have to do something historic to move any higher

10:30

But like I said, that's not a consensus opinion. I think he's a consensus top 5 guy, and I mean, not getting traded so the exact placement isn't all that meaningful. Some people have him #1 already I'd say

Simon

10:30

Garrett Crochet's entire innings workload/injury history has so many red flags on paper, but when I actually watch him pitch it looks like a guy that could be the league's best LHP quickly. Was there any divide between how traditional scouts vs. front office execs felt about him?

Ben Clemens

10:31

You know, it didn't really come up because the group of pitchers I have around him in talent just all had one more year of team control

I think that if this was a top 70 or something, I would have had a lot more discussions about Crochet

But basically I never had him in the top 50 and people were just like 'yeah this makes sense, he's probably just off'

Air Yordan

10:32

Does doing this list change how you would approach the draft if you were a GM? Which side do you fall on: pitching prospects break so focus on college bats OR pitching is so valuable when it’s developed that it’s worth emphasizing in the draft. I’ve changed my mind on this numerous times but usually end up thinking it just makes way more sense to focus on bats

Ben Clemens

10:32

I think it would depend a lot on where I felt my specialties were

Like, theory's all well and good, but if I'm the Mariners or Guardians, I probably want to lean pitching where I can b/c I know my team can develop them

10:33

In a vacuum, I think I'd lean towards hitting. The O's (and Cubs 2016, etc) model still feels very solid to me

but I would have taken Crews over Skenes last year and look how that's panned out

10:34

You can't just reflexively be only one or the other

Guest

10:34

Does Witt's contract make him more or less valuable than if he hadn't signed it?

Ben Clemens

10:34

Ooh, more I'd say

at minimum two extra years, and two years where he'll be at peak age, and at reasonable rates

Okay, there were a bunch of Jarren Duran questions but I couldn't find a good representative one that covered him broadly, so let's just talk about him

10:35

I definitely had Duran in the top 50 at various point

On the last call I did, he was in the 51-60 range, I forget exactly where, and when we had finished going over the guys I liked more than my contact and the guys he liked more than I did (Skenes, it's always Skenes), I was asking him for some names just off of it

"hey, will I feel dumb for not having x guy in"

10:36

I brought up Duran and he basically said eh, you could go either way and I'd be fine

That's pretty much how I feel

I mention every year that there's far less gradation that far down the list

10:37

I'm hyper aware of Duran's season b/c he's basically single-handedly carrying my fantasy team, and it's been really fun to watch, I was shocked in 21 and 22 when he just couldn't break in

I think that projections are rightly skeptical of him because of the inconsistent PT and long time to break out, I definitely had him higher on the list than a raw ranking would

10:38

the initial formula I used to start working off of blends projected surplus value, projected WAR under team control (with some adjustments for position and replacement level), and peak WAR

10:39

and Duran checked in right around Spencer Steer (shout out to sadtrombone), Sal Frelick, Yainer Diaz, names like that

I don't agree with that, I think he's better, though I think he's more like a 120 wRC+ hitter with 55 LF defense than what he's doing this year

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