JotCast | Ben Clemens Trade Value Series Chat -7/26/24

Ben Clemens Trade Value Series Chat -7/26/24

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Ben Clemens

10:39

you know, here's a good comparison for you: Bryan Reynolds

10:40

2021 was the year Kevin Goldstein and I did these rankings together and we left Reynolds off

he absolutely shoved that year, .302/.390/.522 and plus defense in center, 6.3 WAR

10:41

he's been a 120 wRC+ hitter with minus defense in left since then, worth 7.2 WAR in three years and 1700 PA

I don't feel particularly bad about leaving Reynolds off the list, though he definitely could have been on the tail end

Well-Beered Englishman

10:41

I guess Robert and Skubal are the highest guys who we might actually see traded in the next 1-2 years? Unless something goes catastrophically wrong somewhere?

Ben Clemens

10:42

Yeah, I think I agree with that sentiment looking through the names. The only other consideration is one of the two Mariners SP's in a trade for a big bat

like Gilbert for Vlad, Bo, and Yimi Garcia to really go for it this year, who says no

(probably the Mariners)

Hunter

10:42

Riley Greene has basically only played any Center because Parker Meadows couldn't stick in the big leagues, how much does being left field only in the future change things for him? I do think he could stick in center in a park with a smaller outfield.

Ben Clemens

10:43

This is something I thought about a good bit in working out Greene's value

10:44

I think that being center field capable really helps him. I agree with you that he's probably left field only given the Tigers' circumstances but being able to stand in center when necessary, and having the corner outfield defense consistent with that (as in he's a plus corner guy) helps out a lot for me

I feel like if you're average or below in a corner, well, that basically works out to zero defensive value

RetireNutting

10:44

If Skenes does win ROY how far back does he fall on the list when the Pirates lose a year?

Ben Clemens

10:44

I think I mentioned this in the blurb, but I'm assuming that year is gonna go away

Doesn't really affect my ranking, because it's basically priced in already

brb, gonna grab some coffee

Guest

10:45

Is there anything a reliever could do to make it into the top. 50?

Ben Clemens

10:45

Honestly, not with the way baseball works not

now*

birds

10:45

A majority of last year's list didn't make this year's list. So player value, even that of the ~5% most valuable players in the sport, is that fleeting?

If the asset itself is going to depreciate that fast, then the only reason to trade for a top player is if you think it's going to provide an external benefit, e.g. a championship and marketing?

Ben Clemens

10:45

Well, yes and no

10:46

I have last year's list up, and out of the top 25, here are the players who missed this year

Wander Franco (yup), Sean Murphy (weird circumstances), the 4 TJ pitchers, Bo Bichette, Framber Valdez

10:47

oh and Zac Gallen, sneaking in at the end there

so some of those are just the value getting realized

Bichette and Gallen specifically, hey they were 2.5 years to free agency so 40% of their juice was in the lats year

brb again

10:49

sorry, my dog's medication won't give itself

anyway, yeah, the bottom of the list is gonna be pretty choppy I think

10:50

And the top is fairly stable, excluding injuries

I think that'll probably always be the case. The weird cases are the Juan Soto types where they're so good they should be near the top but so close to free agency that in a year the picture will be very different

Conor

10:50

Wondering about how close Nimmo was to honorable mention status, he's been worth 4-5+ WAR for the past 3 years (on pace for this year). His contract isn't a behemoth either and he has team control through 2030.

Ben Clemens

10:50

Easily could have been on there

10:51

The HM list was nearly as long as the actual list so I had to draw the line somewhere

but I think of trade value and MLB value generally as normally distributed... there are a lot of people in the Nimmo/Devers range

good player, this guy on this deal can be on your next championship team

but probably not the make-or-break trade chip

Cards fan

10:51

Does Dylan Cease make your list now:)

Ben Clemens