JotCast | Ben Clemens Trade Value Series Chat -7/26/24

Ben Clemens Trade Value Series Chat -7/26/24

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Ben Clemens

11:04

like Skenes's stuff is just that good, you don't need to see 100 of his splinkers to know it's great

it's certainly a thing, range of outcomes is huge

but I think for pitchers in particular, and for pitchers who succeed in pretty obvious ways even more so, you can make judgments quickly

11:05

I definitely take your point, I just think that in this specific case it doesn't track

Nate

11:05

I would not argue that Austin wells should be included, but I can easily see him progressing to where he is on the list next year. Do you agree?

Ben Clemens

11:05

Yes

Last cut from the 'youths' section of HM's because there were just too many names

11:06

actually I just counted, there were more than 50 HM's

we're gonna have to do something about that for next year

Darb

11:07

If PCA puts up an 80 wrc+ over the next year is he in contention for this list?

Ben Clemens

11:07

no. I am willing to be swayed by data but I don't see PCA hitting

and playing full time in the majors for a year and adding an 80 wRC+ to his existing lackluster batting line is not gonna push his projected outcomes higher

Oaktown Blues

11:08

Anyone have a superlative recent stretch (in either direction) that made you reconsider their placement last minute? Thinking Gore's string of bad starts, or Rooker's 262 wRC+ in July

Ben Clemens

11:08

yeah I definitely wasn't thrilled that Gore got blown up on Sunday afternoon before my Monday morning article

To be honest, that's one of the holes in this analysis. I take some time doing the numbers and talking to people, and well, time passes

11:09

I try not to be too swayed by a few weeks of games b/c I think this should endeavor to be a stable list

but things really can change a lot in a month

Oddball Herrera

11:09

Following on Skenes. I don’t think there is a ton of daylight between Skenes and Jobe in terms of scouting and skills, yet one is an honorable mention and the other a top 10. Do 12 starts in the majors really change your value THAT much?

Ben Clemens

11:09

I disagree with you on that, and I think that talent evaluators would too

11:10

I'll give you an example, Steamer projects Skenes for a 1.6 lower ERA

I mean, how good are those in-season projections? no idea

but I don't think it's like 'oh these are the same'

Okra

11:10

Can you share any feedback you got from industry peeps on Strider? I think he would fetch a ton if the Braves traded him.

Ben Clemens

11:10

Yeah good question

I put all the TJ pitchers together and asked peopel what they thought

11:11

and they basically said yeah, no one's getting traded when they're in the middle of rehab, even in a world where everyone was getting traded

they'll surely resume their places on the list once they've made one start at the major league level

but the information asymmetry is just way too big

Trade for a guy where Braves doctors have been handling his rehab for a year, and then the Braves are like 'oh we want to trade him, give me your best offer'?

sketchy!

11:12

I mean, not a year in Strider's case right now, but you get the idea

birds

11:12

in 2022, 1.5 years of Hader brought back two 45-grade prospects and major leaguers. in 2018, three years of Diaz brought back a 60-grade and a 35+, even with Cano as baggage. In 2016, a half season of Chapman brought back a 60-grade, a 40+, and stuff.

Those returns seem good compared to what I imagine the back end of the top 50 would return. Are you really sure Miller or Clase wouldn't return a 50-grade guy or more?

Ben Clemens

11:12

I wouldn't trade Jared Jones for Mason Miller, and I think that if Jared Jones were on the market, teams would offer mroe than they would for Miller

11:13

so yeah, I feel like I'm right in that assessment. Also the Diaz trade was pretty bizarre, but I think calling Kelenic a 60 is generous if you look at the overall industry view

maybe a 55+ or whatever, and eh, I don't think deals like that are happening anymore

the Hader trade is a good example, if someone in the top 50 got traded for that I'd be like, oh, dang, I think I misjudged

JDawg

11:14

Which 1 player did your evaluation change the most on in either direction due to team intel?

Ben Clemens

11:14

Skenes

I'm not sure he moved the most places on the list, but my estimation of his value moved the most

I have a general idea what kind of feedback I'm getting

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