JotCast | Ben Clemens Trade Value Series Chat -7/26/24

Ben Clemens Trade Value Series Chat -7/26/24

powered by

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Ben Clemens

10:52

I remember writing about his bizarre lack of fastball results in 2020, and it seems like he agreed b/c he's changed his fastball shape around a lot

always rooting for him to succeed, even if I thought his slider poem was a little over the top

But yeah, just not enough time left

Oddball Herrera

10:53

You're more bullish on Carroll than I am...when you talked to people, was there any concern that, as we've seen this year, fringe power guys become way less valuable when MLB messes with the baseball? If MLB keeps tinkering god knows what you're getting out of these types year to year

Ben Clemens

10:53

I didn't hear that concern specifically, I think b/c Carroll would be awesome as a doubles hitter. I think the injury concerns and the big process-related slump worried people a lot more

Like it'd be one thing if his batted ball quality was exactly the same and things just weren't leaving the park

10:54

But that's not really what's going on here

Jordan

10:54

Hi Ben - to what extent do you value players with a higher floor but lower ceiling (like Zach Neto) as compared to players with more clear flaws, but a higher ceiling if they can figure it out (like Oneil Cruz)?

Ben Clemens

10:54

I think it's clear from my cross-checking that I value ceiling more highly than the industry as a whole

every year the stable defense guys are consistently flagged by people I talk to as needing to go up some

10:56

If I had a one-line way to explain how this works, I'd definitely give it to you. Part of the "art" of it, and honestly I'm not sure I'm great at it b/c there's no objective way to judge, is that I just have the one tool at the end of the day

the list

to show how I think about these guys

but I can use whatever I want in getting to that value

Oaktown Blues

10:56

If you had made a version of this list this past off-season, would Zack Gelof have made the cut? Obviously his value has taken a major hit this year.

Ben Clemens

10:57

Probably an honorable mention. I had him in the first cut on here in terms of 'let's throw a bunch of names at the wall, run the numbers, and see what sticks'

he didn't stick

But it's not like he missed by miles

10:58

in the raw formula he's not a ton different than, say, Cal Raleigh or Brice Turang

Dan

10:58

Do you ever get feedback that makes you think the person youre talking to knows something significant about the player that isn't publicly known?

Ben Clemens

10:58

Yes. It's from people who trust me not to put that in these rankings, of course, and I wouldn't

but yeah, that's happened

Jeff

10:58

How much does the market play when factoring in these rankings? For example, Almost every team could use an upgrade at SP, but not every team needs a SS, therefor, with more competition, the value would inflate.

Ben Clemens

10:58

Definitely matters

10:59

I think that singular talents kind of break that rule, like everyone wants Yordan Alvarez

but it still matters on the margin, for peopel like Skenes, everyone needs an ace badly

11:00

and it matters a little bit more at the bottom of the list, like you better be a pretty good COF/1B to get on here

b/c tehre's constant supply of those types

Guest

11:00

Who's someone off the list who you think could make a jump on next year?

Ben Clemens

11:01

Ooh, fun one. I'm gonna exclude honorable mention types b/c that kinda defeats the purpose, I think

11:02

Nolan Jones

I'm surprised I didn't get more flak for leaving him off of last year's list, but that appears to have been merited

I still really believe in his potential, though

Wrights_Back

11:02

How can you possibly rate Skenes so high after such a short body of work? Granted, he's been superlative, but so have many others in times past.
I guess another way of asking this question is - how do you correct for the risk of underperformance? Eg, with players that have more than a few years of experience, the range of future outcomes is more defined.
Skenes feels like more of a lottery ticket at this point.

Ben Clemens

11:03

I just disagree with this premise

Like yes, in terms of performance track record, I'm with you

but you have to watch the games with Skenes

if a clone of Mike Trout from 2012 started playing tomorrow with no track record, we'd be like hm, I dunno, small sample size, maybe this won't work

but well, he'd be a clone of Mike Trout

11:04

it feels more evident to me in pitching

Connecting…

Register

Message History

On Off

On Off

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

Register now to continue managing your subscriptions

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Ben Clemens hosts a chat