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Brad Johnson and Paul Sporer Baseball Chat 1-9-2018
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Brad Johnson
2:14
yikes
2:15
I can see him reaching that ceiling, but I can't justify paying for it as a mean/median outcome
Paul Sporer
2:15
I think the SP market has something to do with it, too, bc it gets wide open around that area (25-30) and just becomes a glob from that point to about SP60-70
Brad Johnson
2:16
We need to coin The Glob and work on our SEO
Paul Sporer
2:16
What are your biggest concerns with Pham for '18? Just the price? Health? Or are skills a concern?
Brad Johnson
2:16
Well, part of the reason I didn't fully buy was his history
2:17
he looked like he had this in the past then went full pumpkin
I kind of assumed pitchers would figure him out again or he'd lose whatever advantage he found
Paul Sporer
2:17
It *seems* to depend a lot on how well his eye issue is being managed
I don't think it's *fixed*
Brad Johnson
2:17
narratives!
2:18
Even with some of their trades, the Cardinals also have impressive outfield depth
they show no compunction with demoting cold hitters
there are risks to buying 2017 Pham at full price
2:19
Ok, enough Pham? Do you know why this keeps happening?
Daniel Castro
2:19
Paul, can you tell Brad to stop cracking on me? I'm gonna launch some major dingers at Coors this year, and ain't nobody gonna stop me!
Paul Sporer
2:20
Ya, enough Pham. I think there's still risk but I think it's mostly health-related. I buy the skills.
LOL, I don't see any real pop from Castro
Brad Johnson
2:21
I've been getting chat questions and tweets for weeks about him :)
Pretty sure it's actual Daniel Castro
Paul Sporer
2:21
LOL
or Mrs. Castro
where's he going to play?!
Brad Johnson
2:21
oh I like that option more
Anyway, here are a few right in your wheelhouse...
Buddy
2:22
Going back to Paul's SP comment about it "globbing" from 30 through 60, does that put an emphasis on drafting elite pitchers early in your drafts?  Or do you take your chances throwing darts in the middle rounds?
WormsleyCommonGang
2:22
The league is on a power/offense surge. I'm seeing a trend of people saying "don't pay for SP" and the like. Is it time to zig when others are zagging and stock up on front-end SP? I can go into 2018 keeping Kershaw, Kluber, Severino, and Carrasco for an average of $25 per player. I'd be stocked in SP and am thinking of going for another Scherzer or MadBum. Hitting seems flush with power and talent that I could get by.

Thoughts?
Frustrated
2:22
Strategy question - how would you attack a pitching staff if your dynasty league overvalues pitching? Homie can't even get a halfway decent option from rebuilding teams for top prospects like Moncada and E.Jimenez.
Brad Johnson
2:22
They're all a little different, but touch on some similar themes
2:23
I actually reacted to last year's draft pool by going heavy on aces like Wormsley suggests. Worked out very well. Early on, I'm seeing a sharp spike in their price.
Paul Sporer
2:24
Wow, if those guys aren't bringing back real arms then you have to build through bounce backs and buy-lows
Brad Johnson
2:24
For dynasty purposes, stick with Moncada and Jimenez. Try to scrounge Mortons and Godleys. You can get pretty far with an elite offense and mid-tier pitching.
Paul Sporer
2:24
^^
Agreed fully there
Brad Johnson
2:24
Pitchers are the finishing touch in dynasty
they break so often that they make for fickle long term assets
2:25
You've probably done more mocks and draft prep than me, what are you seeing happen with ace prices?
Paul Sporer
2:25
They're high for sure
2:26
Because there's an even smaller group of truly reliable aces
A couple in the first round of 15-teamers and then several others throughout rounds 2-5
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