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Brad Johnson and Paul Sporer Baseball Chat 1-9-2018
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Brad Johnson
2:26
Is there such a thing as a reliable ace?
Paul Sporer
2:27
It sounds trite, but a pitcher is only reliable until he's not
And the reliability of the past almost makes him a worse bet to stay reliable
Brad Johnson
2:28
that's one of the things I struggle with at times, especially when pondering trades in keeper formats
Paul Sporer
2:28
So you look at a Hamels who just had a throng of 200-inning gem seasons and he was seen as super-reliable then just fell apart in 2017 (relative to his previous heights)
Brad Johnson
2:28
volume is an indicator of good health and also a warning sign for future injury
Paul Sporer
2:28
Ya it's so tough to assess
Al Gone Quinn
2:29
When you say scrounge for Mortons and Godleys, are you inferring to scrounge for this type of pitcher who breaks out in 2018? Because in my league the owners of Morton and Godley value these guys hugely.
Paul Sporer
2:29
Because you never want to be holding the hot potato of a reliable vet who goes wrong
Brad Johnson
2:29
Yes, look for the next breakouts. I try to target high GB rates with middling velocity. If the velo or command takes a step up, you suddenly have something
Paul Sporer
2:29
I imagined Brad was saying get those guys of 2018 (Chads Green and Kuhl for example) bc yes, I'm also finding those two highly valued this year
2:30
Ya, don't run for solid-if-unspectacular velo. I love velo as much as the next guy, but it doesn't guarantee anything and not having it isn't an automatic disqualifier
Brad Johnson
2:31
5 years ago, velocity was something you'd take for granted. Now it seems like a couple dozen guys spike their velo each year
i.e. just because Trevor Williams throws 91 now doesn't mean he won't throw 93 next year
Paul Sporer
2:31
Another interesting name I like
Brad Johnson
2:31
Williams, incidentally, is a guy I like - the ballpark doesn't hurt either
2:32
Paul and I did a mock draft recently, turns out we like very similar things
Paul Sporer
2:32
Ya turning over rocks this fall, I often start in the best parks so PNC essentially pointed me toward Williams & Kuhl
lol sniping each other left n right
Brad Johnson
2:33
ok, let's write some words about catchers
Erik
2:33
If you can't get Sanchez, Posey, or Contreras, would just wait til the end of the draft to pick up a catcher? Looks like a whole lot of similarly-valuable not very good fantasy catchers this year, kinda like tight end in fantasy football drafts.
Brad Johnson
2:33
So Jeff's big finding of the offseason is that positional scarcity doesn't exist, EXCEPT for catchers
Even if you miss the top 3, it may make a lot of sense to secure the 4th or 6th best
2:34
I really like Austin Barnes, pretty sure Paul agrees on that one
Grandal's continued presence could confuse things
Paul Sporer
2:34
And BHQ's Forecaster has a piece they update in the front of the book yearly about endgame returns and it always shows C as a terrible endgame investment, so don't just wait until the very end
Ya we love Barnes, but the market is adjusting. I was hoping Grandal looming would keep his price reasonable, but it hasn't. That said, I do think Barnes will keep his PA up with 2B even if Grandal stays
Brad Johnson
2:34
Depending on your league, I'm seeing 2B and OF as the deepest positions
2:35
if you're looking for a place to get late value
I don't hate a value buy on Lucroy. Went from a career year to obviously hurt
Paul Sporer
2:35
You won't find me drafting CI very early, either, unless a gem drops in the earlier rounds that I can't pass (like I get Arenado/Votto in 1st/2nd and then J.Turner lasts too long or something)
2:36
He was OBVIOUSLY hurt, right? Bc I can't find ANYTHING on it, but there's no way Lucroy wasn't battling some nagging injuries IMO
Brad Johnson
2:36
had to be. He literally morphed into Francisco Cervelli
Paul Sporer
2:36
lol good comp
Colorado bringing him back or they rolling Iannetta/Murphy/Wolters?
Brad Johnson
2:37
No idea, probably depends on whatever inside info they have
Paul Sporer
2:37
What about Alfaro on your club in Philly?
Brad Johnson
2:37
I've never been a big fan of Alfaro for fantasy purposes
Looks way too JP Arencibia to me
right down to the inconsistent defense
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