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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 10-2-2018
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Brad Johnson
3:43
We'll start in 10 minutes or so. I'm opening the queue a little early today.
Jackie
3:54
If you didn't have a partner, would you be able to be solely a writer or would you need a "day" job?
Brad Johnson
3:55
I could make my income work - especially with either a roommate or by simply picking a cheap market to live. I'd have to make more of my own food, and I wouldn't have much of a safety net. So I'd probably be hustling harder via some other income source.
3:56
Granted, I needed a lot of seed money to get this career off the ground, although I earned all that myself.
Tim
3:56
In a 10-team, Keep-5 H2H category league w/ OBP and OPS. You think Goldy is worth keeping at $45? How about Xander at $15?
Brad Johnson
3:57
They both look keepable to me absent other info. I think, ideally, you'd keep something cheaper than Goldy then redraft him or similar for $50.
3:58
In 10-team H2H, I'd put almost all of my budget into ace pitchers. It's so easy to find competent bats with good matchups - assuming you don't have a strict waiver move cap.
Ed
3:58
How do you generally approach the end of the season in redraft leagues, re: identifying mistakes and changing your approach moving forward?
Brad Johnson
3:59
Honestly, I didn't play many redrafts this year. I had a few too many teams and it's always easiest to let go of the ones I haven't been designing for years and years.
In general though, I'm looking for unforced errors in strategy.
I'll have an article soonish about how I botched my playoff round versus Nick Pollack in the FG Staff league
4:00
Those were the types of mistakes I'd be looking to identify.
4:01
Usually, rosters fail for uncontrollable reasons.
4:02
My TGFBI roster, which I think was 4th in my league, completely whiffed on Ken Giles (coin flipped between him and Diaz - and I stand by that as a coin flip), Robinson Cano (can't predict PEDs), and Byron Buxton (0th percentile projection).
Not a lot to learn there. It's not like I didn't know Buxton was volatile.
Zach
4:03
Who does the data suggest the Yankees should start tomorrow? I remember reading earlier in the season that the A's tend to struggle against high-velocity fastballs. In which case, Severino seems like the best choice. But did this trend change in the second half?
Brad Johnson
4:03
Severino makes sense to me. The A's have a pretty balanced and deep lineup, but their best power comes on low fastballs.
Ken
4:03
In a 10-teamer, I'm keeping mostly bats but may have room for a pitcher or two. On the menu: Happ at $11, Paxton at $10, Ray at $7 and Folty at $5. Pax/Folty look best to me, but you think any of those are absolute musts to hang onto?
Oh, and $5 Flaherty as well on that menu
Brad Johnson
4:05
Paxton, Folty, and Flaherty are all really desirable. No need to rush to a decision.
Those are good keep prices on potential ace-quality fantasy pitchers.
Ken
4:05
$24 Seager - let him go? Or do you believe?
Brad Johnson
4:05
5x5 12-team roto for Corey Seager? I'd let him go.
4:06
I still like him plenty, but I bet he doesn't return $24 next season. His stat profile isn't ideal for roto.
DJ Tanner
4:06
For those of us who are sad the fantasy season is over, how can we keep fantasy baseball in our lives until next year gets going??
Brad Johnson
4:08
Shameless self promotion: my Patreon page is evolving into a community with Discord, reader leagues, and other coolness. Pondering a dynasty slow draft some time in late November/early December. Other content on the daily too. https://www.patreon.com/posts/21795783
Conor
4:08
In a 12-team H2H league, can only keep 5. I've got Leclerc and Hader for $5, but hesitant to hang onto any RPs in such a shallow league. What do you think?
Brad Johnson
4:09
Have to agree, pending the alternatives
CW
4:09
What does a package for Vlad Jr look like this offseason?
Brad Johnson
4:10
Gonna need a lot more info... in reality, it's not really possible. That may be true of fantasy too. We'll see.
RMR
4:10
Votto's power come back next year?
Brad Johnson
4:10
I think so. If we're banking on 20 to 25 HR
RMR
4:10
What would an improved Hoskins look like next year (i.e. which statistical areas could you see him conceivably improving to improve his overall line)?  Given his high pull rate, he seems unlikely to improve his BABIP too much.  Could he lower the Ks and up the power a bit more?
Brad Johnson
4:12
I don't think there's any more power in there. And I don't think more aggression would help him at all. I suppose it's possible he could get even better at picking out pitches to ambush, but I think we're looking at a hitter who really understands his strengths and weaknesses. He is what he is.
Aaron
4:12
Any idea why Albies ran so little this season?  How does a guy with that speed only attempt 17 steals?  At first I thought it might be an organizational philosophy not to risk running into any outs ahead of Freeman but Acuna attempted 21 steals in almost 50 fewer games.
Brad Johnson
4:13
Can only guess that he's not comfortable stealing bases. It's possible he was avoiding injury too. There are all manner of minor injuries that cause base thieves to be a little more careful about picking their spots.
DJ Tanner
4:13
In the beginning of August in my dynasty league, I traded away three years of Yelich for 6 years of Tatis Jr. and 5 years of Jake Bauers. Worth it?
Brad Johnson
4:14
I don't think Bauers is all that much to get excited about, but Tatis by himself gives you plenty of scope to "win" the trade.
I suspect I would have done the swap too
Matt
4:15
My league does keepers somewhat weird. Sparing you the details, I'm curious about outlooks for Marquez, Dereck, Moncada. Not relative to each other necessarily, but where they would fall on a futures ranking. Thanks!
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