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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 10-2-2018
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Brad Johnson
4:16
Marquez seemed to figure something out for the second consecutive season. He doesn't have much margin for error. I'd sell high as Coors Field historically destroys any pitcher who looks like he might become a thing.
Dereck is just a guy with a good home park at this phase of his career.
4:18
Moncada deserves deeper analysis because he's only 23 despite three exposures to the big leagues. He improved his batted ball profile this year and could be on the cusp of a breakout.
Would love to see him make contact more... Better Rougned Odor looks like the upside these days with worse Rougned Odor the downside.
jarjets89
4:19
Can you explain for the zillionth time your hatred of Miguel Andujar? It still doesn't fully make sense to me. Most offensive indicators are very positive (2018 performance, 2017 AAA performance, xstats, clay davenport peak MLEs 2017 AAA and 2018 MLB, fangraphs prospect pedigree). I know your knocks from  past chats: he's unlikely to stick at 3b, and the Yanks might trade him. I'll add a third: he wasn't great before AAA in 2017 -- his clay davenport peak MLEs suggested a league average hitter before 2017 AAA. Starting in AAA, his peak MLE has been well above average. His pre-2017 AAA performance might be why zips and steamer didn't fully buy into his performance this year, projecting him as more of a slightly above average hitter. However, it's been over 600 abs of xstats validated, 128 wrc+ hitting. Those sort of numbers play anywhere (outside NY), at any position (including 1b).
Brad Johnson
4:19
This is a full article. I'll write it before the end of the month, I promise.
4:21
The short explanation is:
1. He can't play defense, such that I doubt even 1B would work
2. Batting profile historically declines and never recovers. Best case is a streaky hot/cold bat.
3. Can't imagine he stays with the Yankees through the winter. Unless other teams agree with me. I don't actually think his bat plays in other venues. He needs tiny dimensions to make up for a too-high GB rate.
Wildtsunami
4:22
Tyler O'neil going to get enough bats next year...
Brad Johnson
4:23
Hard to say, he's kind of a poor man's Joey gallo. That can be frustrating for people to watch day-to-day even if the production is there at the end of the season.
I think he'll be put in a position where he needs to force the Cardinals to play him, and I'm not sure he's capable of doing that.
Joe
4:23
Is Clevinger a legit top 20 pitcher next year?
Brad Johnson
4:24
I haven't looked at the list, but that smells plausible.
Ramon Laureano
4:24
Am I a top 400 player in a H2H 6 category league w/ OPS next year? Next 3 years?
Brad Johnson
4:25
Yes. The defense will keep him in the lineup despite some flaws at the plate. Those flaws won't be felt as badly by his owners because he hits for power and steals bases.
King Buzzo
4:25
I picked up David Dahl for the last week and rode him and Yelich to a dominate victory over the most annoying guy in the league.  No real question, just felt like sharing.
Brad Johnson
4:25
Congrats. I feel very good about hard selling Dahl (was like 15% owned) on Rotoworld prior to that Phillies series.
CubFan
4:26
12 team AL only 5x5 keeper OBP league. $260 team salary. Think Voit $3, Barreto $1 and Choi  $1 have starting gigs in 2019? If so, what are you expecting from them?
Brad Johnson
4:26
Barreto is the least certain. The Athletics will do what the Athletics do. Chad Pinder's as liable to start as Barreto.
4:27
Voit may be decided in part by postseason and spring performance. For $3, he's probably worth the cost of admission in AL Only. Pending opportunity cost.
Choi seems like he could be pushed back into the minors. Nothing stands out as fantastic (or bad) about him.
4:28
All of these prices seem like must keeps if there's no constraint.
Pat's Bat
4:28
10 team h2h.  How comfortable are you with Dozier as your 2b?
Brad Johnson
4:28
Not at all. Let's see how the winter works out for him.
Pat's Bat
4:28
Do you have any non baseball criteria you use when picking a postseason team to root for?  I am debating using local breweries this year, for instance Drakes or Almanac for Oakland
Brad Johnson
4:29
I look for fuzzy feelings about the rosters. That usually involves rooting for underdogs. however, I'm 100% #TeamEntropy
Let there be interesting things!
Matt
4:29
Is Corbin a top 20ish pitcher again next season? Should I keep him for sure or see if I can move him for that kind of value?
Brad Johnson
4:29
I'd explore trading him in a backwards sort of way
Try to sell other pitchers to somebody who needs them
They'll come back asking for Corbin
4:30
Say he's not available
Say no 4 more times
Then, if you really like the offer, take it
Vinny Garcia
4:30
Nolan Arenado or Kris Bryant? Going forward you can chose one for your team
Brad Johnson
4:30
Arenado
I'm not down on Bryant though
RMR
4:30
Any worries about Judge's wrist heading into next season?
Brad Johnson
4:30
Next season? No. This postseason, yes.
joromacsquibb
4:30
What percent chance do you see Houston resigning Dallas Keuchel this offseason? Will it depend on what happens with Morton?
Brad Johnson
4:31
Pretty low in my opinion. Framber Valdez is a very similar pitcher. Josh James looks pretty good too. They could probably use those resources more efficiently
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