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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 12-10-2019
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Braves4Life
4:10
What do you think about me trading Arendo, Mondesi, S. Marte, Bauer and Greinke for Acuna?  Arendo was a keeper and I was on the fence with Modesi.  The others would have been cuts.   Thanks
Brad Johnson
4:11
So Arenado and an option on Mondesi for Acuna. Yea, that sounds fine to me.
Just be careful you don't leave your rival overpowered. That's a lot of talent going his way.
Juan Teixeira Beer
4:11
Does a trade of Francisco Mejía, Adrian Morejon and Cal Quantrill for Willson Contreras sound about right?
Brad Johnson
4:11
I don't really see that as a fit in either direction.
Guest
4:12
Pod wrote a quick bit about Bundy the other day (today, maybe?). You seeing him as a potential back-end starter with some upside potential, or is his ceiling still barely rosterable?
Brad Johnson
4:12
I think there is some potential he defeats his homer demons
4:13
and if he does, then he's back-end rosterable
I don't think he's worth any heroic efforts to grab him. If he's the guy sitting on the wire when you need him, then you can give him a try.
brad
4:13
Where the heck you going in your hometown that only serves Bud on tap?
Brad Johnson
4:13
On the Border, Bonefish Grill, and Cheesecake Factory.
Yes, it's suburban hell
4:14
(bonefish at least had drinkable wines as an alternative)
GM Rizzo
4:14
If I don't sign Rendon, beyond 3B who else is likely my next target?
Brad Johnson
4:14
Bryant seems obvious
4:16
So many bargain plays they can try: Dozier, Asdrubal, Sogard, Franco, Frazier, Holt, Shaw, Flores, Gennett, and Kipnis stand out
Howie Kendrick's already on the roster
Pat
4:16
Cueto or G Richards in 2020?
Brad Johnson
4:17
I'll say Cueto, but I'm in wait and see mode
Nolan
4:17
Is Josh Lindblom on your radar at all?  What kind of ADP might be expect?
Brad Johnson
4:17
Late, whatever Kelly was going for last winter
Conspiracy Theories
4:17
What percentage of your answers are misinformation designed to tamp down interest in players you want to draft for yourself?
Brad Johnson
4:18
none, I have too much hubris to fear you
Jeff on the other hand is a shifty bastard :)
Pat
4:18
Any potential closers you'd speculate on?
Brad Johnson
4:18
Off the top of my head, Clase has top 1 potential
Follow Up Q
4:18
What accounts for Lamet's surge up the ADP ranks?
Brad Johnson
4:18
Big K-rate, reasonably decent looking return
Word?
4:19
Two-part question on Hoskins: 1) You think Steamer's projections are about right at .365 OBP, .500 OBP, 36 HR and 2) if so, do you think that'll be peak Hoskins (age-27 season)?
Brad Johnson
4:19
Sounds like a 65th percentile outcome to me
The OBP is 50th percentile, I just see him more as a 28-32 HR guy
MayorMcCheese
4:19
Keeper league 260 budge. Last keeper: Sale at $45, Moncada at $9, Carlos Santana at $10, Semien at $5?
Brad Johnson
4:20
Has to be Semien or Moncada at those prices
And I'm sad you have to cut one of them
Personally, I'd go Semien. I think it's a little more likely his breakout sticks than Moncada's
Pip
4:20
Do you think people in Ottoneu put too much value in surplus? It’s obviously important, but you don’t win by having the most surplus at the end of the year. Wouldn’t you in the end rather have a $30 player with $0 surplus than a $3 player with$5 worth of surplus?
Brad Johnson
4:21
Yes and no
The first level of analysis is "I win if I get $550 of production out of $400 in resources"
So any source of surplus is bringing you in the right direction
4:22
In reality, the teams that win usually are doing it with loans of elite players. So they're getting $550 production on $550 of budget while forgoing some future seasons of a Jo Adell sort.
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