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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 12-10-2019
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Brad Johnson
4:23
For me, the last thing I worry about is surplus value. I'll routinely overpay for a player (ahem, Mike Trout) to get Top 5 output
Grey
4:23
Re: Giolito:  Is anyone this off-season working with the same "pitching lab" that you mentioned as the reason for Giolito's success?
Brad Johnson
4:24
Undoubtedly. I don't know many of the specifics of his story, but pitching labs are all the rage these days
Tony
4:24
First pick of the draft: Trout or Acuna or other?
Brad Johnson
4:24
In a standard setting, you're overthinking it if you take somebody other than Trout
4:25
Though this is the first year in recent memory that I'll think long and hard about letting myself... overthink...
4:26
which is to say I think Trout's perch as the top fantasy asset is in great danger from Acuna/Yelich/Bellinger/Soto than the previous threats of Betts or Altuve.
Those were just dumb picks over Trout. If you want to take Acuna instead of Trout, I'm not going to give you any grief.
Guest
4:26
Believing in Montas to pick up where left left-off pre-suspension next year?
Brad Johnson
4:27
Well.
No, but I believe the breakout was real
He was still probably pitching somewhere around his 70th percentile
The new splitter was what triggered the breakout, but splitters are notoriously fickle pitches
4:28
Matt Shoemaker is a less talented example. He's had good seasons and bad seasons and half seasons galore through his career.
4:29
I think if you're paying the price for a low 3s ERA and over a strikeout per inning, then you're making a losing bet
But if you're paying the equivalent of a 4.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and over a K per IP, then you have some room for profit.
Chris
4:29
Which site has the most accurate park factors?
Brad Johnson
4:30
I think if we knew that, we'd all be using them
I've yet to see a process which isn't a complete mess. Your best bet might be to take everything in the ecosystem and mash it together.
I've been meaning to re-research park factors as everything I've read about them over the last couple years is that they're all a broken mess.
Word?
4:31
What do I do with a $27 Verlander in Ottoneu?  Trade while he's scalding hot or sit back and enjoy my surplus?  Obv depends on value returned, but wanted some qualitative thoughts.
Brad Johnson
4:31
I've put a similarly priced share on the block. No nibbles. $24 Nola is getting a lot of attention though.
In general, I think it's fair to hear what's out there
4:32
If you can get a productive young+cheap building block, it could be worthwhile to maybe sell a year too early
James
4:32
Thanks for the chat Brad! Is Gallen an SP2, and how would you tier/rank Canning, Keller, Cease, and  short and/or long term?
Brad Johnson
4:33
For Gallen, I'll say that's one of the possible outcomes. I'm not willing to say he IS that. It certainly looks possible.
I think it's safe to pencil him as a positive fantasy contributor - whether that's just as depth innings or as a carrying pitcher, is another matter to be determined later.
4:34
Canning is the only one of those three I'd count on for help in 2020
Keller and Cease are upside plays who are more likely than not going to struggle in 2020.
Breakouts are possible. Monitor in the spring accordingly.
jd
4:34
In FGpts, which player do you like best after a strong rookie appearance: Kyle Lewis, Tommy Edman, Yaz?
Brad Johnson
4:34
I have Lewis and Yaz as below $0
4:35
I'd have to dig more on Edman, but he's a reasonable (presumably $3) keep with his eligibilities.
I worry about his role, the Cardinals are always in a roster crunch
Guest
4:36
Got Mondessi at $8 in dynasty. On the plus side, it's TB instead of HR. On the minus side, it's OBP instead of AVG. He doubles to $16 after the season. I'm thinking about moving him. You think that's a poor idea based on him potentially winning SBs by himself?
Brad Johnson
4:36
i think you have to weigh offers. And not because of the categories or rising cost.
4:37
His shoulder injury is fairly serious. We have every reason to hope he'll fully recover, but we should also be prepared for this to linger indefinitely.
So if somebody is giddy about acquiring the top base running option in the league, I might let them blow me away.
Kelly
4:38
Thoughts on Dinelson Lamet? Early ADP rankings have him pretty high.  Looked pretty good when he returned especially with strikeouts.  Are you a believer?
Brad Johnson
4:38
Can't say I'm especially enthusiastic about him. Minus command and a limited repertoire is something I usually avoid.
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